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Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Isidro Metapán vs Firpo: match prediction on 14 September 2026
Isidro Metapán
Firpo
Prediction for
Win: Firpo
42%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
30%
1
28%
X
42%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 12 Sep, 00:33- Исидро Метапан — 2. place, 16 points after 9 games (5 wins, 1 draws, 3 losses)
- Фирпо — 4. place, 14 points after 7 games (4 wins, 2 draws, 1 losses)
- Исидро Метапан, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Фирпо, last 5 games: 2 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 18 games, Исидро Метапан — 6, 5 draws, Фирпо — 7
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Isidro Metapán
LWLLW
2 wins · 3 losses
Firpo
WDLWL
2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses
Head to head 24
7Isidro Metapán
8Draw
9Firpo
- 10 MayFirpo — Isidro Metapán1:1
- 7 MayIsidro Metapán — Firpo1:2
- 16 AprFirpo — Isidro Metapán0:2
- 19 FebIsidro Metapán — Firpo1:0
- 2 Nov 2025Firpo — Isidro Metapán2:1
Bookmaker market
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 12 Sep, 00:33Firpo edge a tight encounter, 0:1, at 65% confidence. The visitors carry a slight edge in expected goals and have won their last two league meetings here, while Metapán's home record has been fragile. A draw suits Firpo — and given how they run the clock down, that is the main threat.
Metapán sit second on 16 points from nine matches, but their last five games tell a different story. Two wins, three defeats, six points from a possible fifteen. They beat Platense FC 2:1 away on 9 September, but lost at home to Inca Aruba 0:1 and on the road to Municipal Limeño 1:3. Only Alianza (2:0 at home) and Fuerte San Francisco (0:1 away) offered any comfort. The pattern is clear: they cannot hold results together.
Firpo are fourth with 14 points from seven games — four wins, two draws, one loss. Their last five produced two wins, one draw, two losses. A 3:0 defeat to CD Olimpia in the Concacaf Central American Cup on 11 September followed a 3:0 win over Inter on 6 September. Away to FAS they lost 1:3; away to Xelajú they drew 1:1; at home against Platense FC they won 1:0. The results are mixed but the two league victories in that span came against teams they should beat.
The head-to-head record runs to 18 matches: six Metapán wins, five draws, seven Firpo wins. The last six meetings have been tighter. Firpo drew 1:1 away on 10 May, then lost 1:2 at Metapán on 7 May. The visitors have won their last two league meetings here, but the overall balance is slight.
The model puts Metapán at 1.0 expected goals, Firpo at 1.3. A draw is 28%, both teams score 46%, three or more goals 40%. The most likely scores are 1:1 at 13%, 0:1 at 13%, and 1:0 at 10%. The numbers lean toward a narrow Firpo win, but the margin is thin.
Metapán score 38% of their goals in the 76-90 minute period — nearly 11 of 29. They also concede 26% of their goals (9 of 34) in the same window. Firpo concede 26% of their goals (7 of 27) in the opening 15 minutes. That is the vulnerability Metapán could exploit, and the danger Firpo must manage.
The conclusion holds while Firpo keep the game tight and Metapán fail to capitalise on early pressure. If Metapán score in the first 15 minutes, the match opens up and the visitors' advantage evaporates. A red card changes everything, but that is not a scenario tied to this fixture.