Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Libertad Asunción vs Emelec: match prediction on 4 September 2026
Libertad Asunción
Emelec
Prediction for
Win: Libertad Asunción
50%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
41%
1
30%
X
29%
2
Average bookmaker line (46)
2.25
1
3.02
X
3.14
2
Odds range
2.10 — 2.38
for outcome 1
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 2 Sep, 01:01- Либерад Асунсьон — 7. place, 37 points after 27 games (10 wins, 7 draws, 10 losses)
- Эмелек — 11. place, 32 points after 27 games (9 wins, 8 draws, 10 losses)
- Либерад Асунсьон, last 5 games: 3 wins, 1 draws, 1 losses
- Эмелек, last 5 games: 2 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 7 games, Либерад Асунсьон — 1, 4 draws, Эмелек — 2
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Libertad Asunción
DWLDW
2 wins · 2 draws · 1 loss
Emelec
WLWDW
3 wins · 1 draw · 1 loss
Head to head 7
1Libertad Asunción
4Draw
2Emelec
- 10 MayEmelec — Libertad Asunción1:1
- 4 Aug 2025Libertad Asunción — Emelec1:2
- 12 Apr 2025Emelec — Libertad Asunción1:1
- 30 Nov 2024Libertad Asunción — Emelec2:1
- 2 Jun 2024Emelec — Libertad Asunción0:0
Bookmaker market
46
bookmakers counted
2.25
Average bookmaker line
2.10 — 2.38
Odds range
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 2 Sep, 01:01Libertad Asunción to win at 2.22. The home side carries a five-point cushion in the table, has won three of their last five, and the market has moved in their favour — odds for a home victory dropped from 2.37 to 2.22 over the last day. The model puts Libertad's expected goals at 1.4 against Emelec's 0.8, and the most likely scoreline is 1:0 at 16%. This outcome stops holding if the match stays cagey through the opening half; Emelec have drawn four of the last seven meetings and are comfortable grinding results.
Form and momentum
Libertad sit eighth on 37 points after 27 matches, while Emelec are twelfth on 32. The home side's last five brought three wins, one draw and one loss — they beat Macará 1:0 at home, Universidad Católica 2:1 at home and Orense SC 3:0 at home, with a 2:2 away draw to Guayaquil City and a narrow 0:1 defeat at Aucas. Emelec have won two, drawn one and lost two in the same span: victories over Leones del Norte 2:1 and Técnico Universitario 2:1 at home, a 0:0 away draw to Guayaquil City, and losses to LDU Quito 0:2 and Aucas 0:2.
Head-to-head pattern
Seven meetings in recent years yield one win for Libertad, four draws and two for Emelec. The most recent fixture ended 1:1 in May at Emelec's ground. Before that, Libertad lost 1:2 at home in August 2025, drew 1:1 away in April 2025, won 2:1 at home in November 2024, and the two matches before that — a 0:0 away draw in June 2024 and another 0:0 at home in August 2023 — suggest a rivalry where tight margins decide outcomes.
Where the game is played
Libertad score heavily in the final quarter, with 37% of their 19 goals coming between the 76th and 90th minute, but they also concede 35% of their 20 goals in that same period. Emelec's scoring is more spread — 29% in the 16-30 minute window and another 29% between 46-60 — yet they have not scored at all between the 61st and 75th minute across 17 goals. The model's 28% draw probability and 40% both-teams-to-score figure lean toward a low-scoring affair; 1:1 sits at 13% and 0:0 at 12%.
What breaks the prediction
A draw suits Emelec's approach to these fixtures. They have kept results within one goal in five of seven meetings and are not looking to chase the game. If they manage the tempo well and Libertad fail to break through in the opening period — when the visitors have conceded 22% of their goals between 16-30 minutes but have scored 29% in that same window — the match could drift toward a stalemate.