Mogren vs Mladost Lješkopolje: match prediction on 21 September 2026

Mladost Lješkopolje have not lost in five matches, and Mogren have lost two of their last five — I see a draw as the most likely outcome. The visitors carry an unbeaten record into this fixture, while the hosts sit seventh with eight points after six games. The model puts the draw at 25%, and the recent results back that up.

The visitors' patience

Mladost Lješkopolje sit second with ten points from six matches, recording two wins and four draws without a single defeat. Their last five games produced one victory and four draws, with seven goals scored and six conceded. They have drawn three of their last four league matches — 1:1 away at Iskra, 1:1 at home against Rudar, and 3:3 at home versus Zeta — showing a pattern of tight, hard-to-break games.

Mogren's inconsistency

The hosts have eight points from six matches, sitting seventh with two wins, two draws and two losses. Their last five results are one win, two draws and two defeats, with six goals scored and five conceded. They lost 1:2 at home to Iskra and 1:2 at home against Grbalj, while picking up a 3:0 win away at Rudar and a 1:1 draw away at Berane. The pattern shows vulnerability at home.

What the numbers say

The model expects Mogren to score 1.5 goals and Mladost Lješkopolje 1.2. The three most likely scorelines are 1:1 at 12%, 1:0 at 10% and 2:1 at 9%. Both teams to score sits at 55%, and there is a 51% chance of three or more goals. Mladost have scored 38% of their goals in the 31-45 minute period and 27% after 76 minutes, while conceding 33% between 61-75 minutes.

When the prediction falls apart

A draw suits the visitors — and given how they run the clock down, that is the main threat. If Mladost score early, in the opening 15 minutes when they have hit 12% of their goals, or if Mogren exploit the 61-75 minute window where the visitors have conceded a third of their goals, the picture changes. An early goal would force Mladost to open up, and Mogren have shown they can score away — their 3:0 win at Rudar proves that.