Nõmme United II vs Tallinna Kalev: match prediction on 10 September 2026

Tallinna Kalev are the clear favourites at 2.13 to win here, a price reflecting their superior league position and the way they have handled this fixture over the past season. The pick is a home defeat, contingent on Nõmme United II containing the visitors' late-game threat — Kalev score 37% of their goals after the 75th minute, a pattern that could prove decisive.

Kalev sit seventh with 36 points after 27 matches, while Nõmme United II occupy ninth with 27. That nine-point gap has not closed despite both sides playing the same number of games, and it shows in the win records: 10 victories for Kalev against 7 for the hosts. The visitors have also lost fewer matches — 11 compared to 14 — which matters when you are looking at consistency across a full season.

Kalev have collected 7 points from their last 5 matches with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, scoring 6 goals and conceding 9. Nõmme United II managed only 4 points from the same period — 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses — with 5 goals scored and 8 conceded. The hosts lost 2:1 away at Maardu on 06.09.2026 and went down 0:1 at home to Elva three days later, results that suggest they are struggling to find momentum.

In three matches this season Kalev have won twice and drawn once, with no victories for Nõmme United II. The most recent encounter ended 3:1 to Kalev at their ground on 18.07.2026, and before that the hosts lost 2:1 at home on 18.06.2026. The only positive result for the home side was a 4:4 draw on 01.05.2026, but that was an outlier in a pattern of defeats.

The model expects goals at both ends. It projects 1.8 goals for Nõmme United II and 2.0 for Kalev, with a 21% probability of a draw and 72% that both teams score. The most likely scorelines are 1:1 at 8%, 1:2 at 8% and 2:1 at 7%. Both sides score heavily in the final quarter — Nõmme United II have 30% of their goals after the 75th minute, Kalev 37% — which means matches tend to open up late. A draw suits the visitors, and given how they run the clock down, that is the main threat to a home defeat.

Timing patterns matter. Goal distribution tells a story beyond simple totals. Nõmme United II concede 27% of their goals in the 31-45 minute window and 22% in the final 15 minutes, while Kalev score 37% of their goals after the 75th minute. The visitors also concede 23% of their goals in the 16-30 minute period, which could create early pressure. Neither side has clear injury or suspension news available, so the assessment rests on what has been observed on the pitch rather than team changes.