Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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SC Braga vs Estoril: match prediction on 14 September 2026
SC Braga
Estoril
Prediction for
Win: SC Braga
49%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
49%
1
26%
X
26%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 12 Sep, 20:33- Брага — 8. place, 7 points after 4 games (2 wins, 1 draws, 1 losses)
- Эшторил — 16. place, 2 points after 5 games (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses)
- Брага, last 5 games: 3 wins, 1 draws, 1 losses
- Эшторил, last 5 games: 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 9 games, Брага — 5, 3 draws, Эшторил — 1
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
SC Braga
WDWWL
3 wins · 1 draw · 1 loss
Estoril
DLLLD
2 draws · 3 losses
Head to head 12
7SC Braga
4Draw
1Estoril
- 3 MaySC Braga — Estoril1:1
- 19 Dec 2025Estoril — SC Braga1:0
- 19 Apr 2025Estoril — SC Braga0:2
- 6 Dec 2024SC Braga — Estoril2:2
- 13 Apr 2024Estoril — SC Braga0:1
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 12 Sep, 20:33Pre-match Context
SC Braga entered the fixture on Monday evening in eighth place with seven points from four matches, while Estoril sat in sixteenth with two points from five games. The hosts had recorded two wins, one draw, and one defeat in the league so far. Their most recent outing was a 1-2 away loss to Estrela da Amadora on 10 September. Estoril had failed to win any of their last five league fixtures, suffering three defeats and drawing twice.
Tactical Overview
Statistical averages from the previous ten matches indicated Braga controlled 57 per cent of possession compared to Estoril's 49 per cent. Both sides generated similar volumes of attempts on target, with Braga recording 4.3 shots and Estoril 4.33. However, the expected goals (xG) figures diverged significantly, showing Braga at 1.41 and Estoril at 0.88. The model predicted a 1.5 goal output for Braga and one for Estoril, with a 26 per cent probability of a draw.
Team News
Reports prior to the kick-off highlighted 18-year-old defender Jordan Arnolet as a potential option for Estoril coach Vasco Matos following his recent performances. In terms of disciplinary risk, Braga had four players within one booking of suspension, including Pau Victor Delgado and Gabriel Martínez. Estoril also had four players approaching the ban threshold, notably Miguel Ângelo da Silva Rocha, who had accumulated three yellows and one red card.
Historical Record
The two clubs had met nine times in recent years, with Braga winning five matches, Estoril winning one, and three ending in draws. The most recent encounter was a 1-1 draw at Braga on 3 May 2026. Prior to that, Estoril had won 1-0 at home in December 2025. In the league standings, the gap between the sides reflected their form, with Braga holding double the points of Estoril despite playing one fewer match.