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Toronto II vs New York City II: match prediction on 29 August 2026

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Toronto II New York City II

Prediction for

Win: Toronto II

41%

probability

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

37% 1
25% X
38% 2

Average bookmaker line (41)

2.47 1
3.63 X
2.35 2

Odds range

2.32 — 2.55

for outcome 1

Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off

Prediction commentary

Based on data as of 28 Aug, 11:59

Toronto II to win at 2.22 — the home side has dominated this fixture recently and sits on a run that suggests they can edge out a higher-placed opponent.

Toronto II have won four of the last five meetings at home against New York City II, including a 5-0 victory in March 2026 and a 3-0 win in August 2025. That record carries weight even though the visitors sit eight points ahead in the table.

Both teams score heavily in the closing stages. Toronto II net 47% of their goals after the 75th minute, while New York City II account for 38% in the same window. The home side has proven they can capitalise on such moments.

Recent form favours neither side overwhelmingly. Toronto II have taken seven points from five games — two wins, one draw, two losses — while New York City II have collected ten points with three victories. The visitors look slightly sharper, but their away record tells a different story: they lost 2-4 at Columbus Crew II in their last trip.

Toronto II's home results are mixed too. They drew 2-2 with Chattanooga and lost 1-5 to New York Red Bulls II, but they also won 4-2 away at Chicago FC United and 3-1 at home against FC Cincinnati II. The home advantage tilts the balance.

The market has not moved. Odds opened at 2.22 for Toronto II and remain unchanged — no confidence shift, no news-driven adjustment. The bookmakers' implied probability gives Toronto II a 41% chance, which aligns with what the head-to-head record shows.

There is no dramatic divergence between bookmakers either. The spread is just 7%, from 2.14 to 2.30.

Toronto II maintain their home dominance. If New York City II adopt a defensive approach and protect their lead, the match could drift toward a draw — especially given both teams' tendency to score late. A red card early would also change everything.

1.8 goals for each team points toward a tight contest. But Toronto II's ability to finish strong in the final quarter of matches gives them the edge when games are evenly matched.

They have beaten New York City II four times in eleven meetings. The visitors have struggled away from home recently, and that history matters more than the current table position.

Toronto II impose themselves physically and take their chances in the closing stages. If the match stays goalless until then, the home side's late-game record suggests they will find a winner.

Reasoning

Based on data as of 28 Aug, 11:59
  • Средняя линия 30 букмекеров: победа Торонто II 2.22, победа Нью-Йорк Сити II 2.64, ничья 3.57
  • Конторы расходятся в оценке: от 2.14 до 2.30 (7%)
  • Торонто II — 13. place, 30 points after 23 games (10 wins, 13 losses)
  • Нью-Йорк Сити II — 8. place, 39 points after 23 games (13 wins, 10 losses)
  • Торонто II, last 5 games: 2 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses
  • Нью-Йорк Сити II, last 5 games: 3 wins, 1 draws, 1 losses
  • Head-to-head: 11 games, Торонто II — 4, 2 draws, Нью-Йорк Сити II — 5

Key factors

Form last 5 matches

Toronto II DLWWW 3 wins · 1 draw · 1 loss
New York City II WWLLW 3 wins · 2 losses

Head to head 14

6Toronto II 2Draw 6New York City II
All head-to-head

Bookmaker market

41 bookmakers counted
2.47 Average bookmaker line
2.32 — 2.55 Odds range

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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+