Andebol 1
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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United
Prediction for
Win: United
43%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Average bookmaker line (23)
Odds range
1.95 — 2.05
for outcome 1
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Form last 5 matches
Head to head 2
Bookmaker market
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 30 Aug, 08:28The hosts sit 12th with 14 points from nine games compared to the visitors' 19th place and nine points from eight matches. United's last five games have yielded three wins, one draw and one loss, while NA Suruchi Sangha managed two wins, one draw and two defeats over the same span.
United's home record
Their most recent fixture was a 1-2 away loss to Aryan on 28 August, but before that they beat Police 3-0 and drew 1-1 with Mohammedan SC at home. The pattern suggests a side comfortable in their own ground, though the draw against Mohammedan SC shows they can still struggle to break down organised defences.
Visitors' away struggles
NA Suruchi Sangha have played only one away game this season, losing 0-2 to Mohammedan SC on 30 July. Their other four matches have come at home, where they won against Kalighat Club and Rainbow but drew with Wari and lost to Police. The visitors have scored eight goals in five games but conceded five, with their away record offering little to build upon.
Head-to-head pattern
The two sides have met twice before, splitting the results evenly. NA Suruchi Sangha won 2-1 at home in July 2024, while United responded with a 2-2 draw at their own ground in September 2025. Neither result was particularly decisive, and the most recent encounter ended in a stalemate that suggests these fixtures tend to be tight affairs.
Model expectations
The statistical model projects United to score 1.3 goals and NA Suruchi Sangha 1.1, with a 27% probability of a draw and 48% chance both teams find the net. The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 at 13%, 1-0 at 12% and 0-1 at 10%. United's attacking distribution shows 33% of their goals come in the final 15 minutes, while NA Suruchi Sangha have scored 50% of their six goals after the 75th minute, suggesting both sides can be dangerous late on.
When the prediction fails
This conclusion stops holding if NA Suruchi Sangha replicate their away defeat pattern against a more disciplined United side. The visitors have conceded 36% of their goals in the 61-75 minute period and 36% in the 31-45 minute window, but United have been particularly vulnerable in the 31-45 minute segment, conceding 45% of their 11 goals during that time. If the visitors exploit that window while United fail to capitalise on their own late-game strength, the home advantage evaporates.