Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Yelimay Semey 2 vs Akademiya Ontustik: match prediction on 10 September 2026
Yelimay Semey 2
Akademiya Ontustik
Prediction for
Win: Akademiya Ontustik
58%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
19%
1
23%
X
58%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 8 Sep, 12:06- Елимай Семей 2 — 13. place, 12 points after 21 games (3 wins, 3 draws, 15 losses)
- Академия Онтюстик — 4. place, 39 points after 21 games (12 wins, 3 draws, 6 losses)
- Елимай Семей 2, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Академия Онтюстик, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 draws, 0 losses
- Head-to-head: 1 games, Елимай Семей 2 — 0, 1 draws, Академия Онтюстик — 0
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Yelimay Semey 2
LLLLL
5 losses
Akademiya Ontustik
DWWWW
4 wins · 1 draw
Head to head 1
0Yelimay Semey 2
1Draw
0Akademiya Ontustik
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Bookmaker market
No bookmaker data
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 8 Sep, 12:06Akademiya Ontustik to win, 65% confidence. The visitors sit fourth with 39 points and have not lost in five matches, while Yelimay Semey 2 languish in thirteenth with just twelve points and four defeats in their last five outings. The gap in quality shows in the model's expected goals: 1.8 for the visitors against 0.9 for the hosts.
Form tells the story
Yelimay Semey 2 have collected three points from twenty possible across their last five fixtures. They beat Sport Academy Kairat 1:0 at home on 6 August, but since then they have lost to Jaiyq 0:2 away, Shakhter Karagandy 0:3 at home, Aktobe Jas 2:5 at home, and Kaspij Aktau 2 1:2 away. They scored four goals and conceded twelve.
Akademiya Ontustik have done the opposite. Four wins and a draw yield thirteen points. They won 2:1 at home against Aktobe Jas Jas, 2:1 away at Kaspij Aktau 2, 3:2 at home versus Ekibastuz, and 3:1 at home against Khan Tengri. The only blemish was a 0:0 draw away to Sport Academy Sport Academy Kairat. They scored ten goals and let in five.
The table gap
Twenty-seven points separate the sides after twenty-one matches each. Akademiya Ontustik's record of twelve wins, three draws and six losses puts them firmly in the upper half. Yelimay Semey 2's three wins, three draws and fifteen losses leave them rooted to the bottom. The visitors have won more than half their games; the hosts have lost more than two-thirds.
What the model says
The simulation gives Akademiya Ontustik a 1.8 expected goals average and Yelimay Semey 2 a 0.9. The most likely result is 0:1 at 13%, followed by 1:1 at 11% and 0:2 at 11%. The draw probability sits at 23%, both teams to score at 49%, and three or more goals at 49%.
When the prediction breaks
A draw suits the visitors — and given how they run the clock down, that is the main threat. If Yelimay Semey 2 can hold the score at half-time and Akademiya Ontustik grow impatient, the 1:1 outcome becomes far more likely. The model does not account for motivation or set-piece weakness, so a late equaliser from a corner would overturn the conclusion.