RK Zagreb vs Celje: match prediction on 9 September 2026

The visitors' attack has been far more potent in recent matches, averaging 35.2 goals per game compared to Zagreb's 26.6, and the model projects 34 goals for Celje against 29.1 for the hosts. This conclusion stops holding if Celje cannot replicate their scoring form, particularly against Zagreb's home defence.

RK Zagreb have collected 8 points from their last five matches: two wins, two draws, one loss. They scored 133 goals and conceded 130 across those fixtures, including a 30:30 stalemate away to Ohrid and a 26:29 defeat at home to Kielce.

Celje have taken 6 points from five matches: two wins, three losses. They netted 176 goals while conceding 190. They beat Skofljica 40:33 and Ivancna Gorica 35:21, but lost heavily away to Tatabanya, Kielce, and Veszprem.

The draw probability sits at 0%, and the model gives 0% for either side failing to score and for three or more goals in total.

Celje have played more competitive fixtures recently, including matches in the 1. NLB Liga against Skofljica and Ivancna Gorica. Zagreb's last five were all club friendlies. Celje's away record shows vulnerability against stronger sides — losses to Kielce and Veszprem — but their domestic form suggests they can impose themselves on weaker opposition. Zagreb held their own in friendlies, drawing twice and losing only to Kielce, a top European club.

A draw would suit Celje if they choose to manage the game rather than chase a win. Given how they have run matches in their losses — conceding heavily in away defeats to Kielce and Veszprem — a conservative approach could produce a result that undermines the model's expectation of a decisive victory.