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Kolstad
HC Kriens-Luzern
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57%
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Newfoundland Regiment vs Saint John Sea Dogs: match prediction on 18 September 2026
Newfoundland Regiment
Saint John Sea Dogs
Prediction for
Win: Newfoundland Regiment
63%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
63%
1
13%
X
24%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 16 Sep, 22:33- Сент-Джон Сиа Догз — 7. place, 0 points after 4 games (2 wins, 2 losses)
- Ньюфаундленд Регимент, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Сент-Джон Сиа Догз, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 6 games, Ньюфаундленд Регимент — 6, Сент-Джон Сиа Догз — 0
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Newfoundland Regiment
LWWLW
3 wins · 2 losses
Saint John Sea Dogs
WLLWL
2 wins · 3 losses
Head to head 7
7Newfoundland Regiment
0Draw
0Saint John Sea Dogs
- 19 SepNewfoundland Regiment — Saint John Sea Dogs4:2
- 7 FebSaint John Sea Dogs — Newfoundland Regiment4:5
- 11 JanSaint John Sea Dogs — Newfoundland Regiment3:4
- 9 JanSaint John Sea Dogs — Newfoundland Regiment4:5
- 31 Dec 2025Saint John Sea Dogs — Newfoundland Regiment5:6
Bookmaker market
No bookmaker data
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 16 Sep, 22:33Newfoundland Regiment are the side I am backing for victory, and the reason is straightforward: they have won every one of the six meetings between these clubs this season, scoring 30 goals to 22. The visitors have not lifted a win from this fixture in seven months, and the pattern does not suggest a sudden reversal.
Recent form
Regiment have taken 9 points from their last 5 matches, winning 3 and losing 2, while scoring 23 goals and conceding 20. Sea Dogs have managed only 6 points from 5 games — 2 victories and 3 defeats — with 17 goals scored against 21 conceded. The hosts have been more consistent in attack and slightly tighter at the back.
The head-to-head
Since October 2025, Newfoundland Regiment have lost all six games against Saint John Sea Dogs. The results read 5:1, 6:3, 5:4, 4:5, 3:4 and 4:5 — a mix of comfortable wins and narrow victories where Sea Dogs held on late. The visitors have lost all six by an average margin of 1.5 goals.
What the model expects
The simulation projects 4.5 goals for the home side and 3 for the visitors. The three most likely scorelines — 4:2, 4:3 and 5:2 — all point to a Regiment win, each carrying a 4% probability. The draw sits at just 13%.
When the prediction fails
A draw would suit the visitors given how they tend to manage games, and if they come away with a point, the tip collapses. Sea Dogs have shown they can be competitive in tight matches — their 5:4 win at Moncton Wildcats and 4:1 home victory over the same side in August prove they can grind out results — but they have yet to do so against Regiment this season.
The analyst pre-pick for a Regiment win carries 63% confidence, based on the head-to-head record and the hosts' superior goal output in recent fixtures. The model's figures reinforce that direction, with both teams expected to score and the home side projected to edge ahead.
Sea Dogs have lost three of their last five, including a 4:5 defeat at home to Regiment in February and a 3:7 home loss to Halifax Mooseheads in September.