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Sioux Falls Stampede vs Lincoln Stars: match prediction on 13 October 2026
Sioux Falls Stampede
Lincoln Stars
Prediction for
Win: Sioux Falls Stampede
61%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
61%
1
14%
X
25%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 11 Oct, 01:25- Сью-Фоллс Стампед — 5. place, 0 points after 7 games (4 wins, 3 losses)
- Линкольн Старз — 7. place, 0 points after 5 games (2 wins, 3 losses)
- Сью-Фоллс Стампед, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Линкольн Старз, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 30 games, Сью-Фоллс Стампед — 17, Линкольн Старз — 13
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Sioux Falls Stampede
WLLLW
2 wins · 3 losses
Lincoln Stars
WLWWL
3 wins · 2 losses
Head to head 48
23Sioux Falls Stampede
0Draw
25Lincoln Stars
- 29 AprSioux Falls Stampede — Lincoln Stars2:0
- 26 AprLincoln Stars — Sioux Falls Stampede1:5
- 25 AprLincoln Stars — Sioux Falls Stampede6:2
- 19 AprSioux Falls Stampede — Lincoln Stars3:4
- 18 AprSioux Falls Stampede — Lincoln Stars5:2
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 11 Oct, 01:25Sioux Falls Win Expected
Sioux Falls Stampede are the clear favourites against Lincoln Stars tonight, with the model projecting a 3.9 to 2.9 goal advantage that translates to victory in the two most probable scorelines. The Stampede have dominated this fixture historically, winning 17 of 30 meetings. A 3:2 or 4:2 result sits at 5% probability each, making a home win the most likely outcome.
Recent Form
Sioux Falls have collected 6 points from their last 5 matches, winning twice and losing three times, while Lincoln have taken 9 points from the same span with 3 victories and 2 defeats. The Stars have been tighter defensively, conceding only 11 goals compared to the Stampede's 18, but they have also scored fewer. Lincoln's recent results include a 1:0 victory at Des Moines and a 4:3 home win, while Sioux Falls have shown vulnerability in defeats to Fargo Force and Sioux City Musketeers.
Head-to-Head
The historical record runs heavily in Sioux Falls' favour. Over 30 encounters, the Stampede have claimed 17 wins to Lincoln's 13. This season's meetings have been mixed, with both sides trading victories. The most recent encounter ended 2:0 to Sioux Falls on 29 April, but Lincoln bounced back with a 6:2 win just two days later.
Model Expectations
The statistical model expects 3.9 goals for Sioux Falls and 2.9 for Lincoln, with a 93% probability that both teams score and a 96% chance of 3 or more goals in total. The draw probability sits at just 15%, which is unusually low and points toward a decisive result. These figures reflect the offensive capabilities of both sides rather than defensive solidity, and they suggest a game where both teams will attack rather than sit back.
Final Thoughts
The data points toward a high-scoring affair with Sioux Falls coming out on top. The Stampede's historical dominance in this fixture, combined with the model's goal expectations, creates a clear picture. Lincoln have the defensive credentials to make it competitive, but the statistical weight favours the home side.