Arsal 2-1 Chelsea: Ædegaard's Goal Decides London Derby
Arsenal beat Chelsea 2-1 on Saturday at the Emirates Stadium in a Premier League Regular Season match. The hosts went ahead through Kai Havertz in the twenty-fifth minute after a disallowed Riccardo Calafiori goal had been cancelled by VAR thirteen minutes earlier. Martin Ødegaard added the winner fifty minutes in, and the result confirmed a prediction I had made before kickoff—home victory at 59% confidence.
The scoreline tells only part of the story. Arsenal registered nine shots on target against five, but the difference in expected goals—2.11 to 0.35—suggests the visitors did not create much at all. Big chances created tells the same tale: four for the hosts, none for Chelsea. The away side won more aerial duels and completed more long passes, but they camped in the final third less often and could not turn those numbers into chances.
Morgan Rogers opened the scoring for Chelsea in the second minute, but Havertz and Ødegaard turned the game around before half-time and early in the second. Five substitutions came in the second half, with both managers turning to their bench to change the game. Arsenal brought on Ødegaard and Havertz late, while Chelsea introduced Pedro Neto and Morgan Rogers himself.
Arsenal moved up to second place with nine points from three games, while Chelsea dropped to fourth with six points after two wins and one defeat. The hosts kept their unbeaten run going and extended it against a side that had beaten Brighton 4-3 on their last outing.
Three or four moments decided this game, and the rest was backdrop. Ødegaard's goal in the fiftieth minute changed the shape of things, and Oxford's substitution at seventy-seven minutes tightened things up. I called for this outcome before the match because Arsenal's recent form—three straight wins, including a 3-0 victory over Manchester City—suggested they would take the points. Chelsea's results were mixed, with a heavy win over Brighton balanced by a draw against Fulham, and the market had overreacted to their favourite status.
