Angouleme vs Montauban: match prediction on 11 September 2026

Montauban to win. The model expects 45.4 points for the visitors against 14.3 for Angouleme, and the head-to-head record backs that up: Montauban has won 4 of the last 6 meetings while Angouleme has managed only 2 victories. The visitors have already shown they can compete at a higher level, and their Pro D2 return has started with two consecutive wins.

Both sides arrive with identical records in their last five matches — 2 wins and 3 losses each. Angouleme's results read 22:39 away, 38:26 at home, 18:15 at home, 14:45 away, 20:51 away, giving them 112 points scored and 176 conceded. Montauban's sequence shows 20:17 at home, 25:21 away, 35:71 away, 15:71 at home, 25:73 at home, totaling 120 points scored and 253 conceded. The visitors' heavy defeats came in Top 14 before their relegation, while their two most recent Pro D2 matches ended in victories.

The most recent encounter on 18 April 2025 ended 18:19 to Montauban at Angouleme's home ground.

The draw probability sits at 0%, both teams to score at 0%, and the chance of three or more points at 0%. These figures suggest a one-sided contest where the visitors' attacking output overwhelms Angouleme's defensive structure.

If Angouleme's home advantage proves decisive, the visitors' defensive metrics suggest a draw becomes more likely, especially if Montauban struggles to adapt to the physical demands of Pro D2 after their Top 14 experience.

Montauban's relegation from Top 14 adds context. Their last five matches include three Top 14 defeats where they conceded 215 points, followed by two Pro D2 victories with a combined 45 points scored and 38 conceded. The contrast suggests they are finding their level in the second tier, even if their defensive record in the higher division remains porous.

Angouleme has remained in Pro D2 throughout, with their last five matches all at this level. Their home form includes wins against Beziers and Colomiers, but they have lost three of their five outings, including heavy defeats away to Agen and Provence Rugby. Their goal difference of -64 over five matches shows vulnerability at both ends of the pitch.

45.4