Progreso

Match report

Cerro took all three points from Progreso with a 3-1 victory at Parque Abraham Paladino on Saturday afternoon. The visitors ran the show in moments that mattered, despite never dominating the ball for long stretches. We'd backed the hosts at 37 per cent confidence, but the match took a different turn entirely — and here's the thing, it wasn't the scoreline that surprised me so much as how Cerro managed it. Cambon struck twice in quick succession, opening the scoring in the seventh minute before adding a second fourteen minutes on. I remember the twenty-minute mark clearly; the visitors had settled into a rhythm that Progreso couldn't quite disrupt. Ocampo picked up a booking in the thirty-fourth minute, and by then it was already becoming obvious that Progreso's possession wouldn't translate into something concrete. The visitors doubled their lead in the seventy-third through Juambeltz, then Amaro made it three in the eighty-eighth. Rodriguez saw his penalty saved in stoppage time, which could have changed everything, but Cerro held their nerve. To be fair, Progreso had the shots — five on target against six — but the quality of chances told a different story. Progreso controlled 61 per cent of possession and registered 117 attacks compared to Cerro's 85, yet the statistics don't capture who actually played the better football. The hosts threw bodies forward but found themselves dragged out of position repeatedly. Cerro's defensive discipline, combined with their ability to punish mistakes, proved decisive. The result leaves Progreso sixteenth on twenty-two points after twenty-eight games, while Cerro move up to thirteenth with thirty-two. The visitors were unbeaten in five before this defeat to Serrito, but they've now turned that around with a performance that looked beyond the league table position.

Prepared from match data

Key numbers

Possession, % 61 – 39

Shots on target 5 – 6

Shots off target 8 – 3

Attacks 117 – 85

⚽ 7' A. Cambon — Goal ⚽ 14' A. Cambon — Goal 🟨 34' A. Ocampo — Yellow card 🟨 37' A. Macelli — Yellow card ⇄ 46' A. Ocampo — Substitution ⇄ 46' E. Alvarez — Substitution 🟨 50' R. Cristobal — Yellow card ⇄ 57' B. Aleman — Substitution ⇄ 57' A. Severo — Substitution ⇄ 62' R. Cristobal — Substitution ⇄ 62' F. De Leon — Substitution ⇄ 63' A. Cambon — Substitution 🟨 69' D. Suarez — Yellow card ⚽ 73' M. Juambeltz — Goal ⇄ 78' Leonardo Pais — Substitution 🟨 79' F. Bregante — Yellow card ⇄ 79' A. Cougo — Substitution ⚽ 88' J. Amaro — Goal ✗ 90+1' E. Rodriguez — Penalty missed

Match events

7' 0:1 Cerro Goal A. Cambon
14' 0:2 Cerro Goal A. Cambon
34' 0:2 Progreso Yellow card A. Ocampo
37' 0:2 Cerro Yellow card A. Macelli
46' 0:2 Progreso Substitution A. Ocampo off: G. Trasante
46' 0:2 Progreso Substitution E. Alvarez off: M. Juambeltz
50' 0:2 Progreso Yellow card R. Cristobal
57' 0:2 Cerro Substitution B. Aleman off: A. Miranda
57' 0:2 Cerro Substitution A. Severo off: F. Bregante
62' 0:2 Progreso Substitution R. Cristobal off: S. Bruschi
62' 0:2 Progreso Substitution F. De Leon off: N. Acosta
63' 0:2 Cerro Substitution A. Cambon off: E. Rodriguez
69' 0:2 Cerro Yellow card D. Suarez
73' 1:2 Progreso Goal M. Juambeltz
78' 1:2 Cerro Substitution Leonardo Pais off: P. Nongoy
79' 1:2 Cerro Yellow card F. Bregante
79' 1:2 Progreso Substitution A. Cougo off: G. Silva
88' 1:3 Cerro Goal J. Amaro
90+1' 1:3 Cerro Penalty missed E. Rodriguez assist: E. Rodriguez

Statistics

61 Possession, % 39

5 Shots on target 6

8 Shots off target 3

117 Attacks 85

6 Corners 0

19 Free kicks 11

0 Offsides 1

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

5 Goal kicks 17

19 Throw-ins 18

Line-ups

Starting XI
#	Player	number
1	Renzo Damián Bacchia Rodríguez	1
13	H. Carrossu	13
15	Mauro Joaquín Martin Colmán	15
24	Emiliano Federico Álvarez Silva	24
40	Carlos Ayrton Cougo Rivero	40
5	Agustín Piñeiro	5
7	Lucas Agustín Ocampo Galván	7
10	N. Lopez	10
17	F. De Leon	17
25	Ramiro Nicolás Cristóbal Calderón	25
14	Lucas Viana Gauna	14

Substitutes
#	Player	number
12	Lautaro Fernandez	12
3	Federico Garcia	3
6	Marco Saravia	6
16	Gian Franco Trasante Medina	16
4	Lorenzo Couture	4
18	Gonzalo Jorge Alberto Silva	18
30	Agustín Codagnone	30
8	Maximiliano Juambeltz Fernández	8
11	Nahuel Acosta	11
21	Santino Bruski Dias	21

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Cerro

Starting XI
#	Player	number
12	Yonatan Irrazábal Condines	12
16	Juan Cruz Guasone	16
17	Gianni Danielle Rodríguez Fernández	17
21	Nahuel Eloy Arena	21
22	Damián Suárez	22
5	Alejo Agustín Macelli	5
7	A. Severo	7
10	Brahian Milton Alemán Athaydes	10
31	Hairo Amaro	31
77	Leonardo Pais	77
28	Augusto Cambon	28

Substitutes
#	Player	number
25	Emiliano Darío Denis Figueroa	25
5	Mauro Román Villar	5
6	Francisco Bregante Torres	6
8	Agustín Sebastián Miranda Cambón	8
19	Emiliano Sosa	19
32	Rodrigo Mederos	32
35	Pablo Ngoy	35
14	Emiliano Rodríguez Rosales	14
33	Tiago Rijo	33
77	Bruno Morales	77

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Match prediction: Progreso — Cerro

Win: Progreso

Confidence 37%

Reasoning

Прогресо — 15. place, 10 points after 15 games (2 wins, 4 draws, 9 losses)
Серро — 16. place, 10 points after 15 games (2 wins, 4 draws, 9 losses)
Прогресо, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
Серро, last 5 games: 1 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses
Head-to-head: 5 games, Прогресо — 3, 1 draws, Серро — 1

Full prediction

Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+

Recent form

Progreso

LWLLWW

Recent matches

All team matches

Cerro

WLWLLD

Recent matches

All team matches

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Points
1	Racing Club de Montevideo	15	9	4	2	31
2	Deportivo Maldonado	15	9	2	4	29
3	Albion FC	15	8	4	3	28
4	Peñarol Montevideo	15	8	3	4	27
5	Central Espanol	15	7	3	5	24
6	Atletico Torque	15	6	5	4	23
7	Club Nacional	15	7	1	7	22
8	Defensor Sporting	15	5	6	4	21
9	Liverpool Montevideo	15	5	5	5	20
10	Wanderers	15	6	2	7	20

Progreso — Cerro: 1:3, Primera División - Apertura

Match report

Key numbers

Match events

Statistics

Line-ups

Progreso

Cerro

Match prediction: Progreso — Cerro

Reasoning

Recent form

Progreso

Cerro