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HC Kriens-Luzern
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57%
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Italy vs Finland: match prediction on 23 September 2026
Italy
Finland
Prediction for
Win: Italy
89%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
89%
1
11%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 21 Sep, 15:03- Италия — 1. place, 14 points after 5 games (5 wins, 0 losses)
- Финляндия — 2. place, 11 points after 5 games (4 wins, 1 losses)
- Италия, last 5 games: 5 wins, 0 losses
- Финляндия, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Italy
WWWWL
4 wins · 1 loss
Finland
WWLWW
4 wins · 1 loss
Bookmaker market
No bookmaker data
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 21 Sep, 15:03Finland topple Italy in Turin
Finland recorded a 3-2 victory over Italy in the CEV European Championship on 23 September 2026. The result was reached in five sets, ending an Italian unbeaten run of five matches. Italy finished the group stage in first place with 14 points from five wins, while Finland secured second place with 11 points from four victories and one defeat.
The match followed a period of strong form for the Italian side, which had won its previous five games comfortably in Turin. Finland entered the fixture with four wins in their last five outings, including a 3-2 win over Greece and a 3-0 victory against Serbia, though they had suffered a 2-3 loss to Estonia.
The outcome contradicted the pre-match statistical model, which predicted an Italian win. The model also forecasted a 0% probability of a draw and a 0% chance of a drawn match. Finland broke Italy’s rhythm in the fourth set.