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Anilana Lodz
KS Warszawianka
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80%
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Orenburg vs Novyi Urengoy: match prediction on 24 September 2026
Orenburg
Novyi Urengoy
Prediction for
Win: Orenburg
59%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
59%
1
41%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 22 Sep, 12:03- Оренбург — 4. place, 3 points after 3 games (1 wins, 2 losses)
- Новый Уренгой — 1. place, 6 points after 3 games (2 wins, 1 losses)
- Оренбург, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Новый Уренгой, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 9 games, Оренбург — 1, Новый Уренгой — 8
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Orenburg
LLLLW
1 win · 4 losses
Novyi Urengoy
WWWLL
3 wins · 2 losses
Head to head 15
2Orenburg
0Draw
13Novyi Urengoy
- 11 SepOrenburg — Novyi Urengoy0:3
- 22 FebNovyi Urengoy — Orenburg3:0
- 7 Dec 2025Orenburg — Novyi Urengoy1:3
- 25 Dec 2024Novyi Urengoy — Orenburg3:2
- 20 Sep 2024Orenburg — Novyi Urengoy1:3
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 22 Sep, 12:03Novyi Urengoy to win. The visitors have won eight of the last nine meetings between these sides and sit top of the table with 10 points from five matches, while Orenburg languish in fourth with just 3 points from a record of one victory and four defeats. Novyi Urengoy won four of five, scoring 12 and conceding 7. Orenburg lost four of five, netting 5 and letting in 13.
Novyi Urengoy's recent run includes victories over Ufa 3:2 at home on 23 September and MGTU Moscow 3:2 the day before, building on a 3:0 away win against Orenburg themselves on 11 September. Their only defeat in that period came 0:3 at home to Ufa on 10 September. Orenburg's form tells a different story entirely — they lost 1:3 away to MGTU Moscow on 23 September, 1:3 away to Ufa on 22 September, and 0:3 at home to Novyi Urengoy on 11 September. Their sole win in five games came 3:1 away to Ufa on 9 September.
Novyi Urengoy have won eight of the nine meetings since January 2024, leaving Orenburg with just one win. The most recent encounter on 11 September saw Novyi Urengoy win 3:0 away at Orenburg's home ground. Before that, Novyi Urengoy won 3:0 away on 20 September 2024.
No draws have been recorded by either side across their five matches combined. The visitors have demonstrated they can score freely — three of their five wins have come by margins of at least two goals, including two 3:0 victories.
The model projects Orenburg 3.1, Novyi Urengoy 2.8. The figures ignore the recent form and head-to-head record.