Surgut region vs Yaroslavl: match prediction on 25 September 2026

Surgut region are the clear favourites to win this Russian Cup encounter, though the confidence in that prediction sits at 55% rather than the usual heights. The number is modest because the available information is patchy, but the head-to-head record and the home advantage point in one direction.

In five meetings over the past year and a half, the hosts have won four times while Yaroslavl have taken just one victory. The most recent three encounters all ended in home wins for Surgut region, with scores of 3-1, 3-1 and 3-1.

Current standings show Surgut region sitting third with four points from three matches, while Yaroslavl are fourth with just one point from three defeats. Both sides have struggled recently. Surgut region have won one and lost four of their last five, while Yaroslavl have lost all five of theirs. The goal difference tells a similar story: Surgut region have scored 18 and conceded 25, while Yaroslavl have managed just six goals for against 15 conceded.

The model expects Surgut region to score 3.2 goals and Yaroslavl 1.6. What is clear is that the home side should be the dominant force. Surgut region have not lost at home to Yaroslavl in their last three meetings, and they will be looking to extend that run.

Surgut region to win – 55% confidence