Estepona Women vs Ensino Women: match prediction on 8 October 2026

Estepona Women are unlikely to avoid a sixth straight defeat when they host Ensino Women on 8 October. The home side have failed to win any of their last five matches, while the visitors have claimed two victories in that span. The model places Ensino at 73.2 expected points against Estepona's 72.3, a narrow edge that reflects recent form rather than historical parity.

Estepona's run of five losses has left them with zero points. They have conceded 394 points while scoring just 294 across those matches. They lost five straight, including 41:68 at Zaragoza on 4 October and 71:76 at San Giovanni on 30 September, with earlier defeats to the same sides. An average concession of 78.8 points per game against 58.8 scored tells the story.

Ensino have been more competitive. Their two wins came against Estudiantes Women 84:79 at home on 25 April and Valencia Women 70:62 away on 19 April. Three defeats followed, including a 53:72 home loss to IDK Gipuzkoa on 4 October, a 70:73 away loss to Valencia on 3 May, and a 72:85 home loss to Valencia on 30 April. They have scored 349 points and conceded 371, an average of 69.8 for and 74.2 against across five matches.

The two sides have met twice previously, each winning once. Estepona claimed a 92:84 victory at home on 14 February 2025, while Ensino responded with an 87:80 win away on 11 October 2024. The model's expectation of 72.3 to 73.2 points suggests a similar pattern, though the win probability sits at 0% for a draw and 0% for a shutout.

The prediction holds while Estepona's defensive frailties persist and Ensino continue to find enough offence to stay within range. A home victory would require the hosts to close the scoring gap by at least eight points and maintain their shooting efficiency from the February encounter. If Ensino's attack falters or Estepona's defence tightens beyond their recent standards, the outcome shifts. The model accounts for points, not momentum; a sudden shift in either direction would override the current projection.