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Macau Black Bears vs Terrafirma Dyip: match prediction on 10 October 2026

PBA Governors Cup University of Macau Sports Complex Macau Hit Match page
Macau Black Bears Terrafirma Dyip

Prediction for

Win: Terrafirma Dyip

72%

probability

Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model

28% 1
72% 2

Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off

Prediction commentary

Based on data as of 8 Oct, 10:25

Terrafirma Dyip win this match. Macau Black Bears have lost every game they have played so far and are playing at home against a side that has already proven it can beat them.

Macau Black Bears have not won a single game this campaign. Four matches, four defeats, and the team is sitting seventh in the standings with zero points. Their last five outings show two wins and three losses, but those victories came before the current campaign began. The most recent result was a 78:138 defeat away to NLEX Road Warriors on 7 October, a margin of 60 points that illustrates the gap between them and their opponents.

Terrafirma Dyip have also lost more than they have won, but they carry one victory from four matches compared to Macau's zero. Their last five games mirror the same 2-3 split, yet they arrived at this fixture on the back of a 92:116 home loss to TNT Tropang Giga on 7 October.

The head-to-head record offers no comfort to the hosts. Two meetings have taken place this season, with each side claiming one victory. Terrafirma won 102:84 at home in May, and Macau responded with a 96:92 victory away in July. That win came when Terrafirma were playing at home, and the visitors managed to edge it by four points.

The table positions tell a clear story. Terrafirma Dyip occupy fifth place in the standings after four matches, while Macau Black Bears languish in seventh. Both teams have played the same number of games, but Terrafirma's single win gives them a psychological edge that cannot be measured in points alone. The model expects Terrafirma to score 203.3 points and Macau 55.6, which suggests a wide margin of victory is most likely.

This conclusion stops holding if Macau Black Bears replicate their July performance against Terrafirma. They won that game 96:92 away from home, proving they can compete when they hit their rhythm. If the hosts shoot efficiently from distance and limit turnovers, they could keep this close. Terrafirma have conceded 116 points in their last match, so they are not immune to poor shooting nights from opponents. A Macau victory would require them to match or exceed the 96 points they managed in their previous meeting.

Reasoning

Based on data as of 8 Oct, 10:25
  • Макао Чёрные медведи — 7. place, 0 points after 4 games (0 wins, 4 losses)
  • Террафирма Дип — 5. place, 0 points after 4 games (1 wins, 3 losses)
  • Макао Чёрные медведи, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
  • Террафирма Дип, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
  • Head-to-head: 2 games, Макао Чёрные медведи — 1, Террафирма Дип — 1

Key factors

Form last 5 matches

Macau Black Bears LLLLL 5 losses
Terrafirma Dyip WLLWL 2 wins · 3 losses

Head to head 2

1Macau Black Bears 0Draw 1Terrafirma Dyip
All head-to-head

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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+