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Macau Black Bears vs TNT Tropang Giga: match prediction on 13 October 2026

PBA Governors Cup University of Macau Sports Complex Macau Hit Match page
Macau Black Bears TNT Tropang Giga

Prediction for

Win: TNT Tropang Giga

72%

probability

Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model

28% 1
72% 2

Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off

Prediction commentary

Based on data as of 11 Oct, 12:45

TNT Tropang Giga to win, 72%. The gap between sides is clear in the numbers: Macau Black Bears have lost every game this season, while TNT have already shown they can beat established opponents. The forecast expects 209.8 points from the visitors against 51.2 from the hosts, and the head-to-head record from July backs that up.

Macau Black Bears sit seventh after four matches and have not won a single one. Their last five games show the same pattern: one victory, four defeats, with 508 points scored and 639 conceded. The 127:146 loss to Terrafirma Dyip at home on 10 October was their most recent outing. Before that came a 78:138 hammering by NLEX Road Warriors away, a 79:131 defeat to San Miguel Beermen at home, and a 128:132 loss to Titan Ultra Giant Risers on the road. The only bright spot was a 96:92 win away at Terrafirma on 29 July.

TNT Tropang Giga occupy fourth place after two matches, with one win and one loss. Their last five matches tell a different story: three victories and two defeats, 540 points scored and 476 conceded. They beat San Miguel Beermen 116:98 at home on 10 October and Terrafirma Dyip 116:92 away on 7 October. The two losses came against NLEX Road Warriors, 111:118 away on 11 August and 83:88 away on 4 August. The visitors have shown they can score freely, putting up 116 points in consecutive games this month.

The two sides met once on 19 July 2026, when TNT Tropang Giga won 106:103 at home. The forecast gives zero percent probability for a draw, which aligns with the one-sided nature of the previous encounter.

The prediction would fall if Macau Black Bears replicate their away form against Terrafirma, winning 96:92 on home soil. It would also fail if TNT Tropang Giga follow their pattern of losing away to NLEX, as both defeats came on the road. The expected points model suggests a wide margin, but basketball can swing in either direction when the visitors fail to impose themselves.

Reasoning

Based on data as of 11 Oct, 12:45
  • Макао Чёрные медведи — 7. place, 0 points after 4 games (0 wins, 4 losses)
  • ТНТ Тропанг Гига — 4. place, 0 points after 2 games (1 wins, 1 losses)
  • Макао Чёрные медведи, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
  • ТНТ Тропанг Гига, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
  • Head-to-head: 1 games, Макао Чёрные медведи — 0, ТНТ Тропанг Гига — 1

Key factors

Form last 5 matches

Macau Black Bears LLLLL 5 losses
TNT Tropang Giga WLWWW 4 wins · 1 loss

Head to head 1

0Macau Black Bears 0Draw 1TNT Tropang Giga
All head-to-head

Bookmaker market

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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+