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Mindoro Tamaraws vs Binan Tatak Gel: match prediction on 12 October 2026
Mindoro Tamaraws
Binan Tatak Gel
Prediction for
Win: Binan Tatak Gel
59%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
41%
1
59%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 10 Oct, 10:05- Миндоро Тамараус — 7. place, 0 points after 16 games (8 wins, 8 losses)
- Бинан Татак Гел — 3. place, 0 points after 18 games (15 wins, 3 losses)
- Миндоро Тамараус, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Бинан Татак Гел, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
- Head-to-head: 3 games, Миндоро Тамараус — 1, Бинан Татак Гел — 2
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Mindoro Tamaraws
LLWLL
1 win · 4 losses
Binan Tatak Gel
WLWWW
4 wins · 1 loss
Head to head 3
1Mindoro Tamaraws
0Draw
2Binan Tatak Gel
- 2 OctBinan Tatak Gel — Mindoro Tamaraws78:70
- 11 MayMindoro Tamaraws — Binan Tatak Gel75:100
- 14 Mar 2025Binan Tatak Gel — Mindoro Tamaraws69:73
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 10 Oct, 10:05Binan Tatak Gel are heavy favourites to win. The visitors have dominated this fixture recently and are in far better form. They beat Mindoro 78-70 on 02.10.2026 and lead the head-to-head 2-1 overall.
Mindoro's recent form tells a worrying story. They have lost four of their last five matches, scoring just 331 points while conceding 352. Their only win in that span came against Basilan Steel 77-72 at home on 28.09.2026. The defeats have been close affairs—losses to Pasay Voyagers 61-63, Quezon City 61-65, and San Juan Knights 62-74.
Binan Tatak Gel operate from a position of strength. They sit third in the MPBL table with 15 wins from 18 matches. Their last five games produced four victories and one defeat. The 121-79 thrashing of Pasig City on 10.09.2026 shows their ceiling, while the 61-65 loss to Rizal Golden Coolers on 31.08.2026 was their only blemish.
The head-to-head record favours the visitors. Three meetings have produced two wins for Binan and one for Mindoro. Mindoro's only victory came on 14.03.2025 at 73-69. The 75-100 defeat on 11.05.2026 at home demonstrates how badly things can go for the hosts.
The model expects Binan to score 79.3 points compared to Mindoro's 72.8. Both teams to score—meaning both reach their expected totals—also shows 0% likelihood. The margin suggests a comfortable victory for the visitors.
A draw would suit Mindoro's situation. If they can keep the game tight and rely on home advantage, they might salvage something from this fixture. Binan's tendency to close out games could work against them if Mindoro finds a way to stay within striking distance until the final minutes.