Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Águila vs Fuerte San Francisco: match prediction on 30 August 2026
Águila
Fuerte San Francisco
Prediction for
Win: Águila
59%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
59%
1
25%
X
16%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 11:09- Агуила — 11. place, 3 points after 6 games (0 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses)
- Фуэрте Сан-Франциско — 9. place, 6 points after 6 games (1 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses)
- Агуила, last 5 games: 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses
- Фуэрте Сан-Франциско, last 5 games: 1 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 13 games, Агуила — 7, 6 draws, Фуэрте Сан-Франциско — 0
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Águila
LLWDD
1 win · 2 draws · 2 losses
Fuerte San Francisco
DWLLL
1 win · 1 draw · 3 losses
Head to head 13
7Águila
6Draw
0Fuerte San Francisco
- 1 AprÁguila — Fuerte San Francisco1:1
- 26 FebFuerte San Francisco — Águila0:1
- 4 FebFuerte San Francisco — Águila2:3
- 29 Oct 2025Águila — Fuerte San Francisco3:3
- 10 Aug 2025Fuerte San Francisco — Águila0:0
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 11:09Águila to win, and the model places their expected goals at 1.6 to 0.7.
The visitors arrive with a single win from six league games and carry a suspension. F. Escobar picked up a red card on 23 August against Atletico Balboa and will miss this fixture. Águila have won three of their last six meetings but the recent head-to-head on 1 April ended 1:1 at this stadium, suggesting the pattern is not as one-sided as the overall record indicates.
Águila's form has been poor — no wins in their last five matches, two draws and three defeats. They lost 0:1 away to Fuerte San Francisco on 23 August and 2:4 at home to Atletico Balboa two weeks earlier. The visitors are marginally better off, with one victory over five games, but they also lost 0:1 away to Atletico Balboa on the same day as Águila's defeat.
Where the match will be decided
Both sides concede heavily in the final 30 minutes. Águila have taken 29% of goals against them between 76 and 90 minutes, Fuerte San Francisco 31%. The model expects 41% chance of three or more goals in the match, which points to a game where late pressure could decide the result if it stays level.
The most likely scoreline is 1:0 at 16%, followed by 2:0 at 13% and 1:1 at 11%. The draw probability sits at 25% and both teams to score at 41%, but a draw suits Fuerte San Francisco — and given how they run the clock down, that is the main threat to this conclusion.