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Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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FC St. Gallen vs FC Thun: match prediction on 30 August 2026
FC St. Gallen
FC Thun
Prediction for
Win: FC St. Gallen
48%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
48%
1
22%
X
30%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 11:15- Санкт-Галлен — 4. place, 7 points after 3 games (2 wins, 1 draws, 0 losses)
- Тун — 9. place, 3 points after 3 games (1 wins, 2 losses)
- Санкт-Галлен, last 5 games: 2 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses
- Тун, last 5 games: 1 wins, 1 draws, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 4 games, Санкт-Галлен — 1, 2 draws, Тун — 1
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
FC St. Gallen
LLLLW
1 win · 4 losses
FC Thun
LDWDL
1 win · 2 draws · 2 losses
Head to head 5
1FC St. Gallen
3Draw
1FC Thun
- 17 MayFC St. Gallen — FC Thun1:1
- 5 MarFC Thun — FC St. Gallen2:2
- 13 Dec 2025FC Thun — FC St. Gallen0:2
- 4 Oct 2025FC St. Gallen — FC Thun1:2
- 25 Jun 2022FC Thun — FC St. Gallen3:3
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 11:15St. Gallen look strong at home, sitting four points clear of FC Thun in the table after three matchdays with the better record across all competitions this season.
Recent form
St. Gallen's last five matches read 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses. They opened the campaign with a 2-2 draw at home to Luzern before two Europa Conference League defeats to FC Nordsjaelland, then bounced back with a 3-0 cup win away at Thalwil and a 5-1 home victory over Sheriff. FC Thun have won just once in their last five — a 6-0 cup triumph at Saxon Sports — and lost three of their other four games, including the 7-0 hammering away to Lech Poznan.
Head-to-head
The last four league meetings produced two draws and one win apiece. FC Thun lost 2-0 at home in December 2025 but overturned that result with a 2-1 win at St. Gallen in October. They drew 2-2 away in March 2026 and 1-1 at home in May. St. Gallen's home record in the fixture is modest — one win, one draw, one loss across those three league visits.
Table position
St. Gallen sit fourth with 7 points from 2 wins and 1 draw. FC Thun are ninth with 3 points from 1 win and 2 losses. The gap is not large, but St. Gallen have played with greater consistency across all competitions, while Thun's European campaign has been volatile — a 2-2 draw at home to Lech Poznan followed by a 3-2 away loss to Víkingur Reykjavík.
The model
St. Gallen are expected to score 1.9 goals, FC Thun 1.5. The draw probability sits at 22%, with 65% for both teams to score and 65% for three or more goals in the match. The most likely scorelines are 1-1 at 10%, 2-1 at 9%, and 1-2 at 7%. St. Gallen's expected goals average of 2.39 over ten matches compares with Thun's 1.08, suggesting the hosts create more clear-cut opportunities.
When the prediction fails
If St. Gallen start poorly, they are vulnerable in the opening 15 minutes, conceding 27% of their goals in that window while scoring 25% of theirs. FC Thun's own defensive frailty is concentrated in the 31-45 minute period, where they concede 23% of their goals.
If FC Thun's away resilience holds and the match stays tight, the draw becomes the more probable result — and given the 22% baseline probability, that is the scenario where the home win prediction no longer holds.