Flora Tallinn vs Tammeka: match prediction on 2 September 2026

Flora Tallinn to win. The home side carries a decisive advantage in head-to-head history — they have won 13 of 17 meetings — and their recent 3:1 victory over Tammeka on 26 August shows they know how to break this opposition. The model expects 2.4 goals for Flora against 1.0 for the visitors, and the most probable scorelines cluster around a home win: 2:0 at 10%, 2:1 at 10%.

Flora's recent form has been mixed. They have won three and lost two of their last five matches, scoring 12 goals and conceding 7. Their results show vulnerability at home — they lost 1:2 to Paide and 2:3 to Kuressaare in August — but they also produced a 4:0 away win against Inter Club d'Escaldes in the Europa Conference League. The pattern suggests a side that can be exposed but also capable of dominant performances.

Tammeka arrive in sharper shape. Four wins from five matches, 12 points on the board, and only 3 goals conceded in that span. They beat Trans Narva 2:0 away, Kuressaare 1:0 at home, Nõmme United 1:0 away, and Rumori Calcio 1:0 away in cup action. The only blemish was the 1:3 defeat at Flora on 26 August. Their goals come early — 28% in the 16-30 minute window and 25% in the first half — which could trouble Flora, who concede 24% of their goals in that same period.

The historical record favours Flora heavily. In 17 meetings they have won 13, drawn 2, and lost 2. The most recent fixture ended 3:1 to Flora, and before that Tammeka won 3:1 at home in April. Those results suggest the sides are evenly matched in a single game, but the broader picture still leans home.

The model's expected goals figure of 2.4 for Flora points to one or two goals most often, not a flood. The draw probability sits at 18%, which is low, and both teams to score at 56% suggests Tammeka will find the net but not enough to turn the match. Three or more goals are expected in 64% of simulated versions. Flora score 26% of their goals in the final 15 minutes and concede 29% then as well — late drama is part of their pattern.

A draw suits Tammeka, and given how they run the clock down in tight games, that is the main threat. If they can absorb pressure and hit on the counter, particularly in the first 30 minutes where they have been most dangerous, they could steal a point. The absence of a draw in their last five matches makes that less likely, but the 18% probability remains.

Flora Tallinn to win, 65% confidence.