Hegelmann Litauen vs Panevėžys: match prediction on 7 September 2026

The hosts have a narrow edge at home despite a dismal run of form. Hegelmann Litauen have failed to win their last five matches, collecting just two points from those fixtures. They drew 2:2 away to Džiugas Telšiai on 31 August and 1:1 at home against Banga on 23 August, but lost three games in between. The visitors, meanwhile, have won three of their last five matches, including a 3:0 victory away at Banga on 3 September and a 2:0 home win against FK Zalgiris Vilnius on 30 August. Hegelmann Litauen 38%, Draw 26%, Panevėžys 36%.

Panevėžys sit seventh with 29 points after 26 matches, ahead of Hegelmann Litauen on 24 points. Both teams have played the same number of games, and neither can afford to drop points. Hegelmann's record of four wins, 12 draws and 10 losses gives them 24 points and a goal difference of -6. Panevėžys have eight wins, five draws and 13 losses — 29 points and a goal difference of -10.

The two sides have played 19 matches in recent years, with Hegelmann Litauen winning seven, Panevėžys winning six and six ending in draws. The most recent encounter on 4 July 2026 produced a 1:1 draw at Panevėžys. Before that, Hegelmann Litauen won 3:2 at home on 6 May 2026. The three most likely scorelines are 1:1 at 12%, 1:0 for Hegelmann Litauen at 9%, and 0:1 for Panevėžys at 9%.

Goal timing patterns reveal where each side is most dangerous. Hegelmann Litauen score 23% of their goals in both the 31-45 minute period and the 46-60 minute period, while conceding 24% of their goals in each of those same timeframes. Panevėžys are particularly active in the first half, with 35% of their goals coming between the 31st and 45th minute, but they have not scored at all between the 61st and 75th minute. They concede 30% of their goals in the final 15 minutes of matches. Hegelmann Litauen have scored six goals and conceded ten in their last five matches, while Panevėžys have scored seven and conceded three.

A draw would suit Panevėžys given their tendency to manage games well in the second half. They have conceded 30% of their goals in the final 15 minutes, which could prove costly if Hegelmann Litauen find a late equaliser. The hosts have scored 9% of their goals in the opening 15 minutes and 9% in the final 15, showing no particular period of dominance. Panevėžys have not scored at all between the 61st and 75th minute, a period where Hegelmann Litauen have conceded 18% of their goals.

The prediction holds only if Hegelmann Litauen can contain Panevėžys' attacking threat in the first half while exploiting their late defensive frailties. A goal for Panevėžys between the 61st and 75th minute would significantly reduce the chances of a home victory, given their scoring pattern in that period. Conversely, if Hegelmann Litauen score early and defend well, their 38% probability of victory becomes more realistic. 1:1.