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IF Gnistan vs Turku PS: match prediction on 31 August 2026

Veikkausliiga Mustapekka Areena Helsinki Miss Match page
IF Gnistan Turku PS

Prediction for

Win: IF Gnistan

42%

probability

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

49% 1
25% X
26% 2

Average bookmaker line (47)

1.87 1
3.74 X
3.53 2

Odds range

1.75 — 1.95

for outcome 1

Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off

Prediction commentary

Based on data as of 29 Aug, 17:06

Gnistan are predicted to win this fixture. The hosts sit third in the table with 35 points, 5 clear of the visitors who occupy seventh place. Gnistan’s home record this season has been solid, and they look to exploit the gap in quality between the sides. The home side’s superior league position and recent attacking output suggest they will maintain momentum.

Gnistan have found the net 10 times in their last 5 matches, winning 3 of those games. They beat HJK Helsinki 3:2 away and Ilves 3:2 at home. Turku PS have been more conservative, scoring just 7 goals in the same period with 2 victories. The visitors drew 0:0 at home against Inter Turku and lost 1:0 away to HJK Helsinki.

History between these sides is balanced. They have played 7 matches in recent years, with Gnistan winning 3 and Turku PS claiming 3 victories. 1 match ended in a draw. The last league meeting on 24 April 2026 finished 1:1 in Turku. Before that, Gnistan won 2:0 in the League Cup. Gnistan have had the edge in the most recent competitive encounters.

The projection is for a low-scoring affair. It estimates 1.5 goals for Gnistan and 1.3 for Turku PS. The most probable scoreline is 1:1 at 12%, followed by 1:0 and 2:1 both at 9%. A draw carries a 25% probability. However, Gnistan’s expected goals total is slightly higher, and their ability to score in bursts supports a narrow victory. Both teams to score is likely at 56%.

Gnistan score heavily in the opening 15 minutes, accounting for 33% of their goals. If they fail to capitalise early, the match could slip into a stalemate. Turku PS face a potential blow with Kian Visser risking suspension after his red card on 23 August. A draw suits the visitors, and given how they run the clock down, it poses a threat to a home victory.

Reasoning

Based on data as of 29 Aug, 17:06
  • Гнистан — 3. place, 35 points after 21 games (10 wins, 5 draws, 6 losses)
  • Турку ПС — 7. place, 30 points after 21 games (8 wins, 6 draws, 7 losses)
  • Гнистан, last 5 games: 3 wins, 1 draws, 1 losses
  • Турку ПС, last 5 games: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 losses
  • Head-to-head: 7 games, Гнистан — 3, 1 draws, Турку ПС — 3

Key factors

Form last 5 matches

IF Gnistan DWWDD 2 wins · 3 draws
Turku PS DWDDD 1 win · 4 draws

Head to head 11

3IF Gnistan 2Draw 6Turku PS
All head-to-head

Bookmaker market

47 bookmakers counted
1.87 Average bookmaker line
1.75 — 1.95 Odds range

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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+