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50%
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NK Lokomotiva vs HNK Hajduk Split: match prediction on 31 August 2026
NK Lokomotiva
HNK Hajduk Split
Prediction for
Win: HNK Hajduk Split
44%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
31%
1
25%
X
44%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 22:14- Локомотива — 6. place, 6 points after 4 games (2 wins, 2 losses)
- Хайдук Сплит — 4. place, 7 points after 4 games (2 wins, 1 draws, 1 losses)
- Локомотива, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Хайдук Сплит, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 draws, 0 losses
- Head-to-head: 15 games, Локомотива — 3, 5 draws, Хайдук Сплит — 7
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
NK Lokomotiva
WLWDL
2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses
HNK Hajduk Split
LWWWL
3 wins · 2 losses
Head to head 25
4NK Lokomotiva
7Draw
14HNK Hajduk Split
- 16 MayNK Lokomotiva — HNK Hajduk Split1:1
- 15 MarHNK Hajduk Split — NK Lokomotiva2:1
- 13 Dec 2025NK Lokomotiva — HNK Hajduk Split1:3
- 27 Sep 2025HNK Hajduk Split — NK Lokomotiva2:0
- 13 Apr 2025HNK Hajduk Split — NK Lokomotiva1:1
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 22:14Hajduk Split have not lost in five matches, Lokomotiva are missing two players through suspension, and the model gives Hajduk a 1.6 expected goals advantage. This conclusion stops holding if Lokomotiva's suspended defenders return unexpectedly or if Hajduk rotate heavily for their European fixture.
Hajduk Split arrive unbeaten in their last five matches — three wins and two draws — while Lokomotiva have won three and lost two in the same period. The visitors' defensive record is tighter: they have conceded just 5 goals across those 5 games compared to Lokomotiva's 8. Hajduk's form includes a 4:0 home victory over NK Osijek and a 2:1 away win at HNK Gorica, while Lokomotiva's recent defeats came 1:4 away to Rudes and 0:1 away to NK Osijek.
Lokomotiva are without two players through suspension. Leon Belcar and Marko Pajač both received red cards in the last three weeks — Belcar on 21.08.2026, Pajač on 15.08.2026 — and cannot be fielded. Hajduk Split are missing Adrion Pajaziti, who was sent off on 20.08.2026. Both sides have players on the brink of suspension through yellow cards, but the immediate impact falls on Lokomotiva's back line.
The head-to-head record does not favour the home side. In the last 6 meetings, Hajduk Split have won 3, Lokomotiva 1, with 2 draws. The most recent encounter ended 1:1 at Lokomotiva's ground on 16.05.2026...
Our analysis expects Hajduk to edge this contest. Their expected goals figure sits at 1.6 against Lokomotiva's 1.3. The draw probability is 25%, while the most likely scoreline is 1:1 at 12%, followed by 0:1 and 1:2 each at 9%. Both teams to score is projected at 57%, and over 3 goals at 54%. The figures suggest a tight match where Hajduk's slight superiority in attack could prove decisive.
Hajduk's goal distribution shows a vulnerability in the closing stages — they have conceded 41% of their goals between the 76th and 90th minute. Lokomotiva, meanwhile, have scored 30% of their goals in that same period. If the match remains level after 75 minutes, the final quarter could decide the outcome. Hajduk are also competing in the UEFA Europa Conference League, having played Raków Częstochowa and FK Zalgiris Vilnius this month, which may affect their rotation.
There are no grounds for Lokomotiva to overturn the visitors' momentum. Their two suspended defenders weaken the back line at a time when Hajduk have scored 14 goals in five matches. The preference for a narrow away result or draw aligns with the historical pattern and current form. A 1:1 draw or 0:1 victory for Hajduk Split looks the most probable path.