Noah II vs Andranik: match prediction on 1 September 2026

Andranik are the clear favourites here, and the model puts them ahead by a wide margin. The visitors have won three of six meetings between these sides, including the most recent encounter in May where they ran out 3:1 winners away from home. Noah II sit 11th with just four points from four games, while Andranik occupy fourth place with six points from three matches. The expected goals tally—1.2 for the hosts against 2.5 for the visitors—points toward a comfortable away victory.

Noah II's recent results tell a story of inconsistency. They have won two, drawn one and lost two in their last five outings, scoring seven goals and conceding thirteen. The 7:0 defeat at home to Bentonit Ijevan stands out as a particularly damaging result. Their only win in that period came away at Sardarapat 2:1, while draws with Banants II and losses to Mika suggest they struggle to close out games against mid-table opposition. The hosts will need to find stability at the back if they are to avoid another heavy defeat.

Andranik's form is more difficult to read. Two wins and three losses in five matches, with eleven goals scored and eleven conceded, does not paint a picture of a team in control. The cup victory over Echmiadzin 5:0 was, but the 4:1 home loss to Olympia Yerevan in the league shows vulnerability. They have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last five games across all competitions. Their scoring pattern is uneven—33% of their goals come in the final fifteen minutes, with another 33% between the 31st and 45th minute. The first half of the second period is a blind spot, with zero goals either scored or conceded between the 46th and 60th minutes.

The head-to-head record does not favour Noah II. In six meetings, they have won once, drawn twice and lost three times. The last two league encounters both ended in Andranik victories, with the hosts losing 1:0 away and 3:1 at home. The only time Noah II won was in September 2024, when they took a 2:1 victory at Andranik's ground. The pattern suggests the visitors have found a way to control these fixtures, even if their own form has been patchy. A draw would suit neither side—Noah II would remain rooted to the bottom half, while Andranik would miss an opportunity to extend their lead over the teams below them.

The model gives 1:2 as the most likely scoreline at 9%, followed by 0:2 and 1:3 both at 8%. The probability of three or more goals is 70%, and both teams scoring sits at 63%. This points toward an open game with Andranik creating more chances. That Andranik win stops holding if Noah II manage to keep a clean sheet and score from a set-piece opportunity. A defensive performance from the hosts, combined with Andranik's tendency to dominate possession without necessarily converting it, could produce a tighter result than the numbers suggest.

I estimate 65% confidence in an Andranik victory. The confidence drops if the hosts can replicate their 2:1 win over Sardarapat 2—a result that showed they can compete away from home when they are organised.