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Pars Jonoubi JAM vs Naft Masjed Soleyman: match prediction on 28 September 2026

Azadegan League Takhti Stadium Tehran Hit Match page
Pars Jonoubi JAM Naft Masjed Soleyman

Prediction for

Slight edge: Pars Jonoubi JAM

44%

probability

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

36% 1
27% X
37% 2

Average bookmaker line (33)

2.49 1
3.31 X
2.44 2

Odds range

2.42 — 2.55

for outcome 1

Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off

Prediction commentary

Based on data as of 27 Sep, 16:35

Pars Jonoubi JAM to win at 2.44. The model puts their expected goals at 1.2 against 0.8 for the visitors, and the confidence sits at 44%.

Pars Jonoubi JAM have not lost in five matches. Three wins and two draws have given them 11 points from that run, with nine goals scored and only one conceded. The two most recent fixtures both finished 0:0, one at home against Shenavarsazi Qeshm and one away at Shahin Bandar Ameri, but before those stalemates came victories over Damash Gilanian (4:0), Niroye Zamini (3:0) and Be'sat Kermanshah (2:1). They sit 11th in the table after two league matches, holding just two points from two draws, but the recent trajectory suggests a side finding its rhythm.

Naft Masjed Soleyman look less settled. Their last five games produced three wins and two defeats, with no draws at all. They beat Ario Eslamshahl 3:0 away and Fajr Sepasi 2:1 at home in May, but lost 0:1 to Naft Bandar Abbas at home in September and went down 0:2 away to Niroye Zamini. They occupy 5th place with three points from two matches — one victory and one loss — but the absence of a draw in five games signals a team that plays with more edge.

The head-to-head record over the past years shows four meetings with one win apiece and two draws. The most recent clash on 6 February 2025 ended 2:2 at Naft Masjed Soleyman's ground, while on 23 September 2024 Pars Jonoubi JAM won 2:1 at home. The pattern suggests neither side dominates the other, but the home advantage will matter.

The model expects Pars Jonoubi JAM to score 1.2 goals and Naft Masjed Soleyman 0.8, with a 33% probability of a draw and 40% chance both teams score. The three most likely scorelines are 0:0, 1:0 and 1:1, each at 15%. Pars Jonoubi JAM have scored 29% of their goals between the 61st and 75th minute and 21% between the 46th and 60th, while they have conceded 67% of their goals after the 76th minute — a vulnerability that could be exploited if the match goes deep.

The line has not moved since opening. Home win at 2.44, draw at 2.71, away win at 2.86 across five bookmakers, and the prices have remained static from 00:00 to 06:00 on 28 September. The market sees no new information — no injury news, no team sheet leak, nothing to shift the balance. F. Najafi leads Pars Jonoubi JAM's scorers with five goals, but no squad updates have come through from the agents.

A draw suits the visitors given their tendency to run the clock down, and that remains the main threat to the home win.

Reasoning

Based on data as of 27 Sep, 16:35
  • Парс Джунуби — 11. place, 2 points after 2 games (0 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses)
  • Нафт Масджед Солейман — 5. place, 3 points after 2 games (1 wins, 1 losses)
  • Парс Джунуби, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses
  • Нафт Масджед Солейман, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
  • Head-to-head: 4 games, Парс Джунуби — 1, 2 draws, Нафт Масджед Солейман — 1

Key factors

Form last 5 matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM WWDDW 3 wins · 2 draws
Naft Masjed Soleyman LWWLL 2 wins · 3 losses

Head to head 5

1Pars Jonoubi JAM 2Draw 2Naft Masjed Soleyman
All head-to-head

Bookmaker market

33 bookmakers counted
2.49 Average bookmaker line
2.42 — 2.55 Odds range

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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+