Querétaro Women vs Monterrey Women: match prediction on 30 August 2026

Monterrey Women are the clear favourites here, and the numbers back that up without reservation. The model puts Monterrey's expected goals at 2.5 to Querétaro's 0.8, and the most likely scoreline is 0:2 at 12%. Backing a Monterrey win with 65% confidence.

Monterrey sit fifth with nine points from four matches, having lost only once. Querétaro languish in sixteenth place with just three points from four games, their only victory coming against León in a narrow 1-0 away win. Monterrey have scored eleven goals and conceded nine, while Querétaro have netted three and let in thirteen.

Querétaro's defensive fragility is most acute in the closing stages. Sixty-four per cent of the goals they have conceded have arrived in the final fifteen minutes of matches. Monterrey have shown similar late vulnerability themselves — sixty-four per cent of their own conceded goals have come in the same window — but their overall defensive record is far stronger, having shipped only eleven goals in total.

Monterrey's attacking output is concentrated early. Twenty-six per cent of their goals have fallen in the 16-30 minute period, starting matches with intensity. Querétaro score thirty-three per cent of their goals between the 46th and 60th minute, tending to find their feet after the break.

The model's probable scores cluster around zero for Querétaro. A 0:2 result carries 12% probability, 0:3 sits at 10%, and 0:1 at 9%. Both teams scoring is only 50%, expecting Querétaro to fail to find the net more often than not. Monterrey's shot accuracy of 34% compared to Querétaro's 29% reinforces that expectation.

Monterrey maintain their attacking momentum. If they start slowly and fall behind early, the match opens up in ways that favour Querétaro's late-game tendencies. A first-half deficit would force Monterrey to chase, and that is the scenario where the prediction stops holding.

Monterrey to win

The visitors have dominated this fixture completely and possess the quality to exploit Querétaro's defensive weaknesses, particularly in the closing stages. Monterrey to control the match and secure a victory, most likely by a 0:2 margin.

Confidence: 65%

Condition where this fails: If Monterrey concede first and are forced to open up, Querétaro's late-game goal threat becomes relevant and the match could swing.