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Rio Ave FC vs Estrela da Amadora: match prediction on 14 September 2026
Rio Ave FC
Estrela da Amadora
Prediction for
Win: Rio Ave FC
48%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
48%
1
25%
X
27%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 12 Sep, 18:53- Риу-Аве — 15. place, 3 points after 5 games (1 wins, 4 losses)
- Эштрела да Амадора — 6. place, 9 points after 5 games (2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses)
- Риу-Аве, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Эштрела да Амадора, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses
- Head-to-head: 6 games, Риу-Аве — 3, 2 draws, Эштрела да Амадора — 1
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Rio Ave FC
WLLDL
1 win · 1 draw · 3 losses
Estrela da Amadora
WDWDL
2 wins · 2 draws · 1 loss
Head to head 8
5Rio Ave FC
2Draw
1Estrela da Amadora
- 15 MarRio Ave FC — Estrela da Amadora2:1
- 25 Oct 2025Estrela da Amadora — Rio Ave FC1:2
- 5 May 2025Rio Ave FC — Estrela da Amadora2:0
- 23 Dec 2024Estrela da Amadora — Rio Ave FC1:0
- 14 Apr 2024Estrela da Amadora — Rio Ave FC2:2
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 12 Sep, 18:53The 63rd-minute strike fell in Rio Ave's most productive window, accounting for 39% of their goals, but the home side failed to capitalise on this statistical trend. Estrela da Amadora, who scored a quarter of their goals in the 61-75 minute window, secured the victory in the second half.
Estrela da Amadora stayed unbeaten with two wins and three draws. Their performance reflected their recent attacking form, where they have scored 11 goals in five games. Rio Ave FC, who have scored only two goals in the same period, struggled to create clear opportunities against a side leaking goals, having conceded 27 in five.
The visitors arrived off a three-goal win at Nacional, whereas Rio Ave FC suffered their fourth defeat in five matches.
Match Summary
Estrela da Amadora edged possession, holding 45% to Rio Ave's 42%. The visitors registered 4.4 shots on target per game on average, significantly higher than Rio Ave FC's 2.33. Expected goals data showed Estrela da Amadora creating more quality chances, with an average of 1.31 xG versus Rio Ave FC's 0.62.
Rio Ave conceded 19% of their goals in the final 15 minutes and 22% between the 16th and 30th minutes. Estrela da Amadora's defensive record showed 27% of goals conceded between the 61st and 75th minutes, coinciding with their attacking peak in those periods.
Rio Ave had been unbeaten in the last four meetings before this result.
Disciplinary records suggested potential risks for both sides. Rio Ave FC's Tamás Nikitscher had accumulated five yellow cards, while Estrela da Amadora's Stefan Leković also collected five yellows.