San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes: match prediction on 10 September 2026

San Diego are favourites at 1.75 to beat San Jose Earthquakes, who have dropped to 3.86 after losing three of their last five. The market prices a home win at 53%, which aligns with the model's expectation of 1.9 goals for the hosts against 1.3 for the visitors. A 2:1 result carries 10% probability, mirroring the 1:1 draw at the same likelihood. Confidence sits at 22% for a stalemate.

San Diego sit ninth with 30 points from 23 games, having won eight, drawn six and lost nine. Their last five matches produced three victories and two defeats, with eight goals scored and five conceded. They beat Los Angeles Galaxy 3:1 at home and Colorado Rapids 3:0. They score most in the 46-60 minute block at 22% of their 49 goals, while 25% of the 48 they concede arrive in the final 15 minutes.

Recent form tells a different story for San Jose Earthquakes: zero wins, two draws and three losses in five games, yielding just three goals while surrendering ten. They occupy sixth place with 35 points from the same number of matches, their record reading ten wins, five draws and eight defeats. They drew 1:1 at Austin and 0:0 away to Houston Dynamo before suffering 5:1 at home to Minnesota United, 1:0 away at Los Angeles Galaxy and 3:1 at home against St. Louis City SC. Their attacking output concentrates early, with 23% of 47 goals coming in the opening 15 minutes, yet 27% of the 37 they concede land in the last quarter.

Four meetings have been played in recent years, with each side claiming two victories. San Jose won 3:0 at home on 5 April 2026, while San Diego responded with a 2:0 friendly victory on 24 January. The earlier encounters saw San Jose edge 1:0 at San Diego on 28 September 2025, and San Diego reverse the form with a 2:1 win away on 17 August 2025. The line has shifted slightly since opening, with the home win dropping from 1.78 to 1.75, the draw rising from 4.07 to 4.14, and the away price climbing from 3.69 to 3.86 across 44 bookmakers.

The 1:0 result sits at 8%. San Diego's disciplinary record includes Jeppe Tverskov's red card on 30 August and concerns around L. Bombino and Amahl William D'Vaz Pellegrino, while San Jose face Jonathan Gonzalez's suspension after a red card and three yellows.