Shahin Bandar Ameri vs Pars Jonoubi JAM: match preview on 21 September 2026

I see no reason to back Shahin Bandar Ameri against Pars Jonoubi JAM on Sunday. The visitors arrive unbeaten in five, having scored 11 goals while conceding just one, while the hosts have managed only two goals in the same period and lost three of their last five outings. I propose a Pars Jonoubi JAM victory at 2.90, with 65% confidence.

Shahin's struggling attack

Shahin's last five matches tell a blunt story. They drew 1:1 away to Naft Bandar Abbas on 15 September, but before that came three defeats in as many weeks — 1:2 at Mes Shahr-e Babak, 0:2 away to Ario Eslamshahr, and 0:1 at home against Kheybar Khorramabad. The hosts have failed to score in three of five games and have not kept a clean sheet since the 0:0 draw with Chadormalu on 5 June 2024. Their attack has run dry.

Pars are in another league

Pars Jonoubi JAM have won four of their last five matches, scoring 11 goals and conceding one. Their only blemish was a 0:0 home draw against Shenavarsazi Qeshm on 15 September. Before that came victories of 2:1 away at Be'sat Kermanshah, 4:0 at home against Damash Gilanian, 3:0 away to Niroye Zamini, and 2:0 at home versus Navad Urmia. F. Najafi has been the standout with five goals in that run. Pars score most heavily between the 61st and 75th minutes, accounting for 29% of their goals, but they have conceded 67% of their three goals in the final 15 minutes — a vulnerability Shahin might exploit if they can survive the opening hour.

League position tells a different story

Both teams sit on one point after one match in the Azadegan League, but the form tables suggest Pars should be much higher. Shahin are seventh with a record of 0-1-0, while Pars are twelfth with the same record — 0-1-0. The discrepancy between their league position and their recent form is striking. Pars's 13 points from five matches would place them well clear of the bottom half if sustained over a full season.

The line has not moved

Four bookmakers have set their odds and kept them static since opening on 20 September. Shahin at 2.44, draw at 2.66, Pars at 2.90 — no movement in either direction across four snapshots. That could mean the odds are fair, or it could mean the market has not yet priced in the gap between these two sides.

When the prediction breaks

If Shahin can hold out until the 76th minute and Pars's late vulnerability materialises, the match could end level. A 0:0 or 1:1 result would mean my conclusion does not hold. The visitors have conceded 67% of their goals after 75 minutes, and Shahin need only one moment to turn this.