Shakhtar Donetsk vs Chornomorets: match prediction on 14 September 2026

Shakhtar Donetsk are clear favourites to beat Chornomorets on 14 September. The hosts sit third with 12 points from five matches while Chornomorets languish in thirteenth on just four from four, a gap mirrored in the expected goals model: 2.9 for Shakhtar against 0.4 for the visitors.

Shakhtar's recent run shows three wins, one draw and one defeat across five games, taking them to 10 points. That includes a 1:1 draw away at PSV Eindhoven on 10 September and a convincing 2:1 victory over Karpaty on 5 September. They did lose 0:2 at home to Polessya on 29 August, but that was an isolated stumble. Chornomorets have won two, drawn one and lost two in their last five, accumulating seven points. They held Livyi Bereh to a 0:0 draw at home on 4 September and beat Hirnyk 1:0 on 30 August, but they also lost 0:2 away at LNZ Cherkasy on 16 August.

The head-to-head record is stark. Over six meetings, Shakhtar have won five, drawn once and lost none. The most recent encounter ended 3:0 to Shakhtar at Chornomorets' ground on 3 May 2025. Before that, 2:1 at Shakhtar on 2 November 2024, then 3:0 and 4:1 in Shakhtar's favour in May and April 2024 respectively. The only draw came on 2 April 2023, a 2:2 result at Chornomorets.

The model points to 2:0 as the most likely scoreline at 16%, followed by 3:0 at 15% and 1:0 at 11%. Only a 9% chance of a draw exists, while 63% predict three or more goals in total. Shakhtar score heavily in the final 30 minutes, with 27% of their goals coming between 61 and 75 minutes and another 27% from 76 to 90. Chornomorets have conceded 44% of their goals between 31 and 45 minutes, which could expose them if Shakhtar find an early rhythm. Mudryk's absence for two months with an ankle injury removes one attacking threat, but Shakhtar's top scorer Alisson has netted seven goals this season.

Given Shakhtar's home advantage and the sheer weight of recent results, neither scenario seems likely to derail a comfortable victory.