Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Chernomorochka Women vs Luch Women: match prediction on 8 September 2026
Chernomorochka Women
Luch Women
Prediction for
Win: Chernomorochka Women
59%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
59%
1
41%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 6 Sep, 16:02- Черноморочка (жен.), last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Луч Женщины, last 5 games: 5 wins, 0 losses
- Head-to-head: 5 games, Черноморочка (жен.) — 5, Луч Женщины — 0
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Chernomorochka Women
WLLLW
2 wins · 3 losses
Luch Women
WWWWL
4 wins · 1 loss
Head to head 5
5Chernomorochka Women
0Draw
0Luch Women
- 24 JanChernomorochka Women — Luch Women26:25
- 26 Jan 2025Luch Women — Chernomorochka Women24:37
- 7 Nov 2024Chernomorochka Women — Luch Women28:27
- 21 Dec 2023Chernomorochka Women — Luch Women42:29
- 16 Sep 2023Luch Women — Chernomorochka Women26:29
Bookmaker market
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 6 Sep, 16:02The conclusion stops holding if the visitors cannot impose their tempo early, as Chernomorochka's head-to-head record shows they can still compete when they control the game.
Luch Women have not lost a match in five attempts, winning every one. The results read 38:26 at home against Alisa Ufa, 38:15 away to Izhevsk, 31:24 away to Adyif, 39:25 at home against Adyif, and 21:20 away at Alisa Ufa. They have scored 167 goals and conceded 110, a clear pattern of dominance. Chernomorochka Women have taken just three points from the same window—one win and four losses, 134 goals for and 147 against. The contrast in momentum is stark.
The head-to-head tells a different story. Chernomorochka have won four of the last five meetings, including the most recent 26:25 at home in January 2026. Luch's only victory came 24:37 in their favour away in January 2025. That historical advantage sits alongside the current form gap, and it is the current form that carries more weight for this fixture.
The model expects Chernomorochka to score 29.9 goals and Luch 26.5. The draw probability sits at 0%, both teams to score at 0%, and 3 or more goals at 0%. These figures suggest a match where one side will pull away rather than a tight contest. The expected goals are averages across many simulated versions, and they point toward a clear winner rather than a draw.
The visitors have not lost in five matches and have scored heavily in each. Chernomorochka have lost four of five and conceded more than they have scored. A draw suits the visitors only if Chernomorochka can control the early tempo, but their recent record shows they have not done that consistently. The main threat to this conclusion is an early period where Chernomorochka dominate possession and score first, which would shift the momentum in their favour.
The conclusion stops holding if the visitors cannot impose their tempo early, as Chernomorochka's head-to-head record shows they can still compete when they control the game.