Zvezda Zvenigorod Women vs Togliatti Women: match prediction on 24 September 2026

Zvezda Zvenigorod Women are the team to back here, and the reason is straightforward: they are at home and have been far more consistent in their last five matches. Togliatti Women have won 11 of 17 meetings in all competitions, but that record was built over years, while Zvezda's current run shows a side finding its rhythm. The hosts are the safe bet, unless Togliatti repeat their away form from May and June when they lost three of four.

Zvezda have won four of their last five games, scoring 167 goals and conceding 138. They beat Alisa Ufa Women 38:26 on the road on 18 September and have won three of four home matches this season. Their only defeat came at home against Chernomorochka Women, 31:33 on 13 September.

Togliatti have won only two of their last five and lost three. Their most recent result was a 29:25 home victory over Luch Women on 20 September, but before that they lost away to Astrahanochka Women 27:28 on 15 September. They have shown flashes of quality, such as the 38:19 win over Izhevsk Women on 9 September, but consistency has eluded them.

Both sides sit level on four points after three matches. Zvezda are fifth, Togliatti sixth. Zvezda's home record this season is stronger than Togliatti's away record, and that matters when the two meet.

The model expects 29.1 goals from Zvezda and 27.8 from Togliatti. That suggests a high-scoring affair, though the probability figures for a draw and both teams scoring sit at zero. The model prices the draw and both teams scoring at 0.0. The model does not account for today's conditions, and neither do I. The draw is the real danger here. Togliatti have drawn two of six recent meetings and know how to grind out a result. If they park the bus and run down the clock, this match could end in stalemate.

The pick holds at 60%. The hosts are stronger in form, have the advantage of playing at home, and Togliatti's away results have been fragile. That confidence disappears if Togliatti replicate their defensive solidity from the Cup match on 10 February, when they held Zvezda to a 29:29 draw away from home.