Chicoutimi Saguenéens vs Shawinigan Cataractes: match prediction on 19 September 2026

Chicoutimi Saguenéens to win. The visitors have dominated this fixture for years — 12 victories in 16 meetings — and they took a 2:0 lead at Shawinigan's rink on 11 September. Shawinigan have won just once in their last five matches, conceding 14 goals while scoring 8, and they now travel to a side that has been more potent in attack.

The model expects 4 goals for Chicoutimi and 3.1 for Shawinigan, with a 94% chance both sides find the net. That points to a high-scoring affair, and the most likely outcomes all favour the hosts — 3:3 at 4%, 4:3 at 4%, 3:2 at 4%. The draw probability sits at just 15%, which makes a home win the clearest path.

Shawinigan's recent form offers little comfort. They lost 0:2 at home to Chicoutimi on 11 September, then dropped 0:4 away to Victoriaville Tigres on 10 September. Their only win in that span came 5:2 against Victoriaville at home on 3 September. They sit fourth in the standings with 4 wins and 6 losses after 10 matches, but the pattern of defeats is hard to ignore.

Chicoutimi have been more volatile but showed teeth in their last outing. They won 7:1 at home against Baie-Comeau Drakkar on 6 September before losing 3:4 away to the same side on 5 September. Over their last five games they have scored 16 and conceded 16, averaging 3.2 goals per match. They sit eighth with 2 wins and 4 losses after 6 matches, but the offensive output is there.

A draw suits Shawinigan — and given how they tend to run the clock down in tight games, that is the main threat. If they manage to keep the scoreline tight and force extra time, the model's 15% draw probability becomes meaningful. But the weight of history and recent form still points to Chicoutimi.

Confidence: 65%