Quebec Remparts vs Shawinigan Cataractes: match prediction on 2 September 2026

Shawinigan have won 10 of 18 meetings, and the model expects 3.7 goals for the visitors and 3.2 for the hosts, with a 49% confidence level.

Both sides have won two and lost three in their last five matches. Quebec Remparts scored 19 goals and conceded 19, while Shawinigan Cataractes managed 15 for and 20 against. The visitors lost their most recent outing 2:4 away at Sherbrooke Phoenix, whereas the hosts lost 2:3 at home to Rimouski Oceanic on 28 August. Neither side has found consistency, but the away team's defensive record is slightly worse.

The last match at this venue on 14 December 2025 ended 3:1 to Quebec, but Shawinigan won 7:0 at home in October 2025 and 5:6 away in March 2025. The visitors have won four of the last six encounters, including both matches at their own rink this season.

Conflicting information appears in the league position. One section lists both teams at first place with zero matches played, while another shows Shawinigan in third with three wins and Quebec in sixth with one win. Shawinigan have played three matches and Quebec four, so the visitors have played fewer games this preseason.

Expected goals sit at 3.2 for Quebec and 3.7 for Shawinigan. The probability of both teams scoring is 94%, and there is a 97% chance of three or more goals in total. The most likely scoreline is 3:3 at 5%, followed by 2:3 and 3:4 each at 4%. A narrow visitors' victory is favoured, though the draw probability of 16% remains significant.

The pick is Shawinigan with 49% confidence. A close game is expected where the away team's edge in expected goals and head-to-head record should prove decisive, but the 16% draw probability means this is not a safe position.