Shawinigan Cataractes vs Newfoundland Regiment: match prediction on 12 October 2026

Shawinigan Cataractes are due for a comeback, and the home side look favourites as the most likely outcome despite their recent struggles. A home win becomes less likely if Newfoundland maintain their away form from the last five matches, where they have won three of four away games, or if Shawinigan's defensive frailties continue to leak goals at the same rate.

Shawinigan have not won any of their last five matches, losing all of them while conceding 33 goals and scoring just 11. Their away record has been particularly poor, with defeats against Victoriaville Tigres 3:5, Gatineau Olympiques 2:3, Rimouski Oceanic 2:13, Quebec Remparts 3:7, and another loss to Gatineau 1:5. The goal difference of -22 over that run tells its own story. Newfoundland, by contrast, have taken 12 points from their last five games, winning four and losing only once to Rimouski Oceanic 1:6. Their attacking output of 17 goals in five matches shows they are finding the net consistently.

The head-to-head record is evenly balanced with two matches played and one victory for each side. Shawinigan won 6:5 away at Newfoundland on 2 November 2025, while Newfoundland responded with a 7:2 home victory two days later. Those results suggest a pattern of high-scoring encounters between the two sides, with home advantage likely to play a role.

In the table, the positions are somewhat contradictory in the data, but Shawinigan sit in the lower half after six matches with only one win, while Newfoundland have played five games and sit higher despite fewer points accumulated. The discrepancy in games played means direct comparison is difficult, but Newfoundland's winning percentage of 80% over five matches versus Shawinigan's 17% over six games shows a clear difference in current form.

The most likely scorelines are 3:3 at 5%, followed by 4:3 and 3:4 both at 4%, which aligns with the model's expectation of at least three goals in this fixture at 97% probability. A draw suits neither team particularly well, and the 95% probability of both sides finding the net suggests we are looking at goals rather than a cagey defensive battle.