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Finland vs Estonia: match prediction on 17 September 2026

CEV European Championship Nokia Arena (Tampere) / Various Tampere Miss Match page
Finland Estonia

Prediction for

Win: Finland

86%

probability

Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model

86% 1
14% 2

Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off

Prediction commentary

Based on data as of 15 Sep, 18:13

Finland win, 86% confidence.

Finland have not lost in the CEV European Championship: three matches, three victories, eight points. Estonia have lost all three of theirs and sit at the bottom of the table with none. The gap between them is not a matter of form over a longer run but of what has happened in this tournament.

Over the last five outings Finland have taken three wins and two losses, scoring 13 sets to 7 conceded. Their recent results show two defeats — 2:3 against the Netherlands and 2:3 against Belgium — but both came at home. The two wins against Denmark and Serbia were 3:0 shutouts, and the away victory against the Netherlands 3:1 suggests they can handle pressure outside their own hall.

Estonia's last five match record is two wins and three losses, 8 sets scored and 10 conceded. Three straight tournament defeats followed: 1:3 to the Netherlands, 1:3 to Belgium, 0:3 to Denmark. Those two earlier wins — 3:1 against Serbia and 3:0 against Montenegro — came before the championship group stage, and the opponents have been different since.

The model projects a 2.4–1.3 set ratio. Draw probability is 0%, over three sets 0%, both sides winning at least one set 0%. The numbers point to a one-sided encounter.

Reasoning

Based on data as of 15 Sep, 18:13
  • Финляндия — 1. place, 8 points after 3 games (3 wins, 0 losses)
  • Эстония — 6. place, 0 points after 3 games (0 wins, 3 losses)
  • Финляндия, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
  • Эстония, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses

Key factors

Form last 5 matches

Finland LWWLW 3 wins · 2 losses
Estonia WLLWW 3 wins · 2 losses

Bookmaker market

No bookmaker data

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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+