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MGTU Moscow vs Orenburg: match prediction on 23 September 2026
MGTU Moscow
Orenburg
Prediction for
Win: Orenburg
70%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
30%
1
70%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 21 Sep, 12:03- МГТУ Москва — 3. place, 4 points after 3 games (1 wins, 2 losses)
- Оренбург — 4. place, 3 points after 3 games (1 wins, 2 losses)
- МГТУ Москва, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Оренбург, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Head-to-head: 5 games, МГТУ Москва — 3, Оренбург — 2
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
MGTU Moscow
LWLLW
2 wins · 3 losses
Orenburg
WLLLL
1 win · 4 losses
Head to head 5
3MGTU Moscow
0Draw
2Orenburg
- 10 SepMGTU Moscow — Orenburg3:0
- 4 MarMGTU Moscow — Orenburg3:2
- 21 Dec 2025Orenburg — MGTU Moscow3:0
- 21 Dec 2024MGTU Moscow — Orenburg3:2
- 15 Sep 2024Orenburg — MGTU Moscow3:1
Bookmaker market
No bookmaker data
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 21 Sep, 12:03MGTU Moscow host Orenburg, where the model backs a 65% win probability.
MGTU Moscow are the clear favourites at home. They won the last two meetings between these sides, including a 3:0 Russian Cup victory on 10 September, and the data projects 3.1 goals for the hosts. Orenburg are coming off a 1:3 defeat away to Ufa on 22 September.
The fixture stakes are tight, with MGTU Moscow third on four points and Orenburg fourth on three. However, MGTU Moscow's home advantage and recent form give them the edge over an Orenburg side that has struggled defensively, losing four of their last five matches.
The model points to a high-scoring game. Expected goals are 3.1 for MGTU Moscow and 4.2 for Orenburg, though the model also gives a 0% probability for both teams to score. The most likely outcome is a MGTU Moscow victory with three or more goals in the match.
Orenburg's away defensive record is poor, having conceded in their last four away games. The most likely outcome is a MGTU Moscow victory with three or more goals in the match.