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Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Orenburg vs Novyi Urengoy: match prediction on 11 September 2026
Orenburg
Novyi Urengoy
Prediction for
Win: Novyi Urengoy
56%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
44%
1
56%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 9 Sep, 14:00- Оренбург — 4. place, 7 points after 6 games (2 wins, 4 losses)
- Новый Уренгой — 2. place, 11 points after 6 games (4 wins, 2 losses)
- Оренбург, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Новый Уренгой, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 8 games, Оренбург — 1, Новый Уренгой — 7
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Orenburg
LLWLL
1 win · 4 losses
Novyi Urengoy
LWWLW
3 wins · 2 losses
Head to head 14
2Orenburg
0Draw
12Novyi Urengoy
- 22 FebNovyi Urengoy — Orenburg3:0
- 7 Dec 2025Orenburg — Novyi Urengoy1:3
- 25 Dec 2024Novyi Urengoy — Orenburg3:2
- 20 Sep 2024Orenburg — Novyi Urengoy1:3
- 28 Jan 2024Novyi Urengoy — Orenburg3:1
Bookmaker market
No bookmaker data
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 9 Sep, 14:00Novyi Urengoy to win. The visitors have won 7 of the last 8 meetings between these sides, including a 3:0 victory on 22 February 2026, and the model expects them to score 3.5 goals on average — a figure that most often translates to three or four goals in a single match. This conclusion rests on the visitors' dominance in the head-to-head record and their current league position; if that pattern breaks, the prediction does not hold.
Orenburg sit fourth in the table with 7 points from 6 matches, recording 2 victories and 4 defeats. Their last 5 games have produced 3 wins and 2 losses, with 43 goals scored and 42 conceded. The most recent result was a 0:3 defeat away to MGTU Moscow on 10 September 2026, followed by a 3:1 win over Ufa on 9 September. They have not kept a clean sheet in their last four matches.
Novyi Urengoy occupy second place with 11 points from 6 matches, having won 4 and lost 2. Their last 5 fixtures also yield 3 wins and 2 losses, but they have scored 10 goals while conceding only 9. They lost 0:3 at home to Ufa on 10 September 2026, then beat MGTU Moscow 3:0 on 9 September. Their away form includes a 3:2 win over Novokuybyshevsk on 21 March.
In the Russian Cup standings both teams have 3 points after 1 match each. Novyi Urengoy are listed first, Orenburg second. Both carry a 1:0:0 record into this cup clash.
The head-to-head record is heavily one-sided. Novyi Urengoy have won 7 of the last 8 meetings, with Orenburg claiming just 1 victory. The most recent encounter saw Novyi Urengoy win 3:0 at home in February 2026. This pattern has not shifted despite Orenburg's two wins in their last 5 matches.
The model's expected goals figure for Novyi Urengoy is 3.5, expected goals is a long-term rate, not a prediction for a single game. Orenburg are expected to score 3.2 on average. The model also assigns 0% probability to both teams scoring and 0% to three or more goals in the match.