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Sweden vs Greece: match prediction on 15 September 2026
Sweden
Greece
Prediction for
Win: Greece
58%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
42%
1
58%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 15 Sep, 03:13- Швеция — 4. place, 1 points after 3 games (0 wins, 3 losses)
- Греция — 5. place, 0 points after 2 games (0 wins, 2 losses)
- Швеция, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Греция, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 1 games, Швеция — 1, Греция — 0
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Sweden
LLLLW
1 win · 4 losses
Greece
LWWWL
3 wins · 2 losses
Head to head 1
1Sweden
0Draw
0Greece
All head-to-head
Bookmaker market
No bookmaker data
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 15 Sep, 03:13Greece are the clear favourites for this CEV European Championship encounter, their perfect group record and superior position in the table outweighing Sweden's previous away victory over them. The model's expected goals are almost identical—1.6 for Sweden, 1.7 for Greece—but Greece's consistency across four matches gives them the edge. Greece win.
The table tells the story. Greece sit top of the group with 12 points from four matches, having won every game. Sweden are second with 8 points from four matches, two wins and two losses. Both sides have now played four matches in the tournament, so there is no catch-up factor—this is a straight contest between the leader and the runner-up. Greece have not dropped a point; Sweden have lost two.
Recent form mirrors the table. Sweden's last five matches read 2 wins, 3 losses—6 points, 9 goals for, 12 against. Their two most recent outings were defeats: 2:3 at home to the Czech Republic and 0:3 away to Italy. Greece's last five also read 2 wins, 3 losses—6 points, 7 goals for, 11 against—but their most recent result was a 3:0 victory away to Italy. That win came one day after Sweden's loss to the Czech Republic, They played on 4 June, a day after Sweden’s defeat.
The head-to-head record is thin but meaningful. The teams met once on 5 June 2026 in the European League, Greece hosting and losing 2:3. Sweden won away, It was a league fixture in June 2026. This is a tournament match with qualification implications, not a friendly or league fixture. The previous result shows Sweden can beat Greece, but it does not guarantee they will again.
The model expects a tight match. Sweden 1.6, Greece 1.7—almost identical. The draw probability is 0%, both teams to score is 0%, three or more goals is 0%. These figures suggest a low-scoring affair decided by a single goal. I would expect either 1:0 or 2:1 in Greece's favour, though the model does not specify exact scorelines.
Greece win. The confidence is not high—the model's figures are nearly equal, and Sweden proved they can win away to Greece once. But Greece's perfect record, their most recent victory, and their position at the top of the table give them the advantage.