Naviera Ulloa vs Colo Colo: match prediction on 25 September 2026

Naviera Ulloa to win by a narrow margin. The model puts their expected score at 78.7 to 77.5, a difference of 1.2 points that reflects how closely matched these sides are. Colo Colo sit fifth after 12 matches with four wins and eight losses, while Naviera Ulloa have shown they can compete at home.

Naviera Ulloa have won both home games this season. They beat Espanol de Talca 86:78 on 22 September and CD Las Ánimas 77:68 on 16 September. The away record tells a different story: losses to CD Las Ánimas 74:79 and Puerto Montt 72:92. Colo Colo's away form is poorer still. They lost at Las Ánimas 75:80, at Puerto Montt twice (67:74 and 84:86), and at Puente Alto CD 72:85. Their only away victory came against Espanol de Talca 81:74.

Both teams have lost four of their last five matches. Naviera Ulloa's record reads two wins, three losses; Colo Colo's one win, four losses. Naviera Ulloa scored 380 points and conceded 399 across five games. Colo Colo scored 379 and conceded 399 over the same span. The defensive numbers are almost identical, yet Naviera Ulloa's two victories came at home, Colo Colo's single win away. That split suggests venue is the deciding factor.

Naviera Ulloa average 29.86 rebounds per game with 15.29 turnovers. Colo Colo pull down 36 rebounds but commit 14.2 turnovers. The rebounding gap is notable, but turnover control may matter more in a one-point game. Both sides shoot around 28 field goals per match and attempt similar numbers of three-pointers. The margin here should be slim.

60% confidence. The model's narrow expected margin, Naviera Ulloa's perfect home record, and Colo Colo's poor away form all point one way. But the statistical similarity between the teams means a narrow Colo Colo upset is possible. Colo Colo would need to shoot significantly above their average from three-point range, or Naviera Ulloa would need to commit more than 18 turnovers in the first half. An away win for Colo Colo would require them to out-rebound Naviera Ulloa and limit turnovers to under 12.