Puerto Montt vs Ancud: match prediction on 5 October 2026

Ancud are the pick to edge this LNB clash, though the margin will be slim. The visitors have won 9 of 12 meetings between these sides and the model projects 80.6 points for Ancud against 78.2 for the hosts. That edge is narrow enough to be overturned if Puerto Montt replicate their recent scoring burst.

Puerto Montt have turned things around in the short term. Their last five matches produced four victories and one defeat, with the only blemish coming on 2 October when they lost 87:92 to Universidad de Concepcion at home. Before that they had won three straight, including a 94:83 victory over Ancud away on 24 September and back-to-back wins against CD Puerto Varas. The scoring numbers tell the story — 403 points in five games, 80.6 per match, though they also conceded 408, so the attack has been productive but the defence porous. They sit fifth on the table after 12 matches, level on the record with Ancud at four wins and eight losses.

Ancud have been less consistent. Two wins and three defeats in their last five games, with the only bright spots a 79:74 home victory over CD Puerto Varas on 28 September and a 74:65 win against Espanol Osorno on 17 September. Their most recent outing was a 72:73 loss to the same Puerto Varas side away on 2 October. They have scored 384 points in that run, averaging 76.8 per game, and conceded 395. Their position on sixth place mirrors Puerto Montt's situation — identical win-loss record, different standing in the table.

The head-to-head history favours Ancud by a wide margin. In 12 meetings over recent years Ancud have won nine times while Puerto Montt have claimed three. The trend has shifted in Puerto Montt's favour recently, though the overall record still belongs to the visitors.

The model expects a tight contest. Ancud are projected to score 80.6 points, Puerto Montt 78.2. The probability of a draw is listed at 0%, and both teams to score is also 0% — these figures seem to reflect the basketball context where exact point totals rarely match. Ancud's shooting efficiency is slightly better — 9.14 successful three-pointers per game compared to Puerto Montt's 8.2 — and they commit fewer turnovers at 11.5 versus 13.8, which could be the difference in a close game.

This prediction does not hold if Puerto Montt continue their current scoring momentum. They averaged 80.6 points per game in their last five matches, which already exceeds the model's projection for Ancud. If the hosts maintain that output and Ancud's recent form — two losses in their last three — continues, the visitors could find themselves chasing the game.