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Puerto Montt vs CD Puerto Varas: match prediction on 17 September 2026
Puerto Montt
CD Puerto Varas
Prediction for
Win: CD Puerto Varas
56%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
44%
1
56%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 15 Sep, 01:33- Пуэрто-Монтт — 5. place, 0 points after 12 games (4 wins, 8 losses)
- Пуэрто-Варас — 3. place, 0 points after 12 games (7 wins, 5 losses)
- Пуэрто-Монтт, last 5 games: 5 wins, 0 losses
- Пуэрто-Варас, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 12 games, Пуэрто-Монтт — 3, Пуэрто-Варас — 9
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Puerto Montt
WWWWW
5 wins
CD Puerto Varas
WWWLL
3 wins · 2 losses
Head to head 21
6Puerto Montt
0Draw
15CD Puerto Varas
- 15 SepCD Puerto Varas — Puerto Montt68:81
- 3 AugPuerto Montt — CD Puerto Varas80:59
- 14 JulCD Puerto Varas — Puerto Montt86:81
- 16 AprCD Puerto Varas — Puerto Montt86:85
- 25 MarPuerto Montt — CD Puerto Varas102:91
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 15 Sep, 01:33Puerto Montt win on Thursday night. The hosts have taken the last two meetings between these sides, including an 81:68 victory over CD Puerto Varas on 15 September, and they arrive with five straight wins behind them. The model puts CD Puerto Varas at 80.9 expected points against 74.3 for the hosts, but that figure does not capture the shift in momentum since Puerto Montt's recent run.
Form and momentum
Puerto Montt have scored 421 points and conceded 357 in their last five matches, winning all five. Their attack has been sharp, averaging 84.2 points per game during the streak. CD Puerto Varas have won three and lost two in the same period, scoring 391 and conceding 393. The visitors have been inconsistent, losing 96:69 away to Valdivia and narrowly beating Universidad Catolica twice in different venues.
Head-to-head picture
Over 12 meetings the visitors hold a 9:3 advantage, but the pattern has changed. Puerto Montt won 80:59 at home on 3 August, then took the reverse fixture 81:68 on 15 September. Before that CD Puerto Varas had won four of five, including an 86:81 home victory on 14 July. The recent trend favours the hosts.
Standings context
CD Puerto Varas sit third with seven wins and five losses after 12 matches. Puerto Montt are fifth with four wins and eight losses. The table gap is small, and Puerto Montt's current form has closed it significantly. They have climbed from the bottom half with five consecutive victories.
Model expectations
The model projects CD Puerto Varas to score 80.9 points, Puerto Montt 74.3. That 6.6-point spread would suggest a visitors' win, but the model does not account for the fact that Puerto Montt has outscored their opponents by an average of 12.8 points per game in their winning streak, while Puerto Varas have been held to below their season average in two of their last three outings.
When the prediction fails
A draw suits the visitors — and given how they run the clock down, that is the main threat. If CD Puerto Varas can hold the hosts to under their streak average of 84.2 points, the visitors' higher expected output becomes decisive.