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70%
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Puerto Montt vs Puente Alto CD: match prediction on 16 October 2026
Puerto Montt
Puente Alto CD
Prediction for
Win: Puente Alto CD
53%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
47%
1
53%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 14 Oct, 00:05- Пуэрто-Монтт — 5. place, 0 points after 12 games (4 wins, 8 losses)
- Пуэнте-Альто — 2. place, 0 points after 12 games (9 wins, 3 losses)
- Пуэрто-Монтт, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Пуэнте-Альто, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
- Head-to-head: 5 games, Пуэрто-Монтт — 2, Пуэнте-Альто — 3
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Puerto Montt
LWLLW
2 wins · 3 losses
Puente Alto CD
WWWWL
4 wins · 1 loss
Head to head 7
3Puerto Montt
0Draw
4Puente Alto CD
- 12 OctPuente Alto CD — Puerto Montt86:79
- 29 Apr 2024Puerto Montt — Puente Alto CD73:85
- 21 Jan 2024Puente Alto CD — Puerto Montt67:71
- 23 Apr 2023Puente Alto CD — Puerto Montt95:101
- 12 Feb 2023Puerto Montt — Puente Alto CD68:83
Bookmaker market
No bookmaker data
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 14 Oct, 00:05The visitors have dominated the recent run of meetings and carry momentum from four victories in their last five games, while the hosts have managed only one win in the same period.
The two sides met just four days ago in Puente Alto CD, where the visitors won 86:79. The home side will be looking to turn the recent trend, but the gap between the teams in the table is telling—Puente Alto sit second with nine wins from twelve, Puerto Montt fifth with four.
Puerto Montt's last five matches produced one win and four defeats, netting just three points from fifteen available. Their sole victory came at home against Ancud, 93:80. The losses included heavy away defeats—79:86 at Puente Alto CD and 59:87 at Universidad de Concepcion—and a narrow home loss to Universidad de Concepcion, 87:92. Puente Alto's run is sharper: four wins and one loss in their last five, taking twelve points from fifteen. Their only defeat was at home to Valdivia, 77:85.
The simulation projects Puerto Montt to score 79.7 points and Puente Alto CD 80.9. The model assigns 0% to both teams reaching three or more points. The narrow margin between the two expected totals suggests a close contest, but the model still favours the visitors.
If the hosts can replicate the intensity of their 93:80 victory over Ancud and keep Puente Alto CD below their recent scoring average, the model's edge evaporates. A draw would also dismantle the prediction, though the model rates that outcome at 0%.
Puerto Montt average 27.9 field goals and 9.6 free throws per game, compared to Puente Alto CD's 28.8 and 12.7. The visitors also convert more three-pointers—9.6 to 8—and commit fewer personal fouls on average, 19.1 to 21.7. These figures suggest Puente Alto's shooting efficiency and discipline give them a marginal advantage in a tight game.
Puente Alto CD's form, their position in the table, and their recent head-to-head dominance all point to a visitors' victory. The model's 65% confidence reflects that alignment of factors.