Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Universidad Catolica vs CD Puerto Varas: match prediction on 4 September 2026
Universidad Catolica
CD Puerto Varas
Prediction for
Win: CD Puerto Varas
54%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
46%
1
54%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 2 Sep, 01:30- Универсидад Католика — 6. place, 0 points after 12 games (2 wins, 10 losses)
- КД Пуэрто-Варас — 3. place, 0 points after 12 games (7 wins, 5 losses)
- Универсидад Католика, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- КД Пуэрто-Варас, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 6 games, Универсидад Католика — 2, КД Пуэрто-Варас — 4
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Universidad Catolica
LLLLL
5 losses
CD Puerto Varas
LLWWW
3 wins · 2 losses
Head to head 9
3Universidad Catolica
0Draw
6CD Puerto Varas
- 8 SepCD Puerto Varas — Universidad Catolica76:75
- 16 Mar 2025CD Puerto Varas — Universidad Catolica67:49
- 9 Mar 2025Universidad Catolica — CD Puerto Varas47:98
- 17 Mar 2024CD Puerto Varas — Universidad Catolica81:69
- 8 Mar 2024Universidad Catolica — CD Puerto Varas72:68
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 2 Sep, 01:30CD Puerto Varas are the clear favourites to win this LNB encounter at Universidad Catolica on 4 September. The visitors sit third in the table with seven wins from twelve matches, while the hosts languish in sixth place with only two victories. The model projects CD Puerto Varas to score 76.7 points against 72.9 for the home side, and the historical record supports that assessment.
The standings tell a straightforward story. CD Puerto Varas have won seven of their twelve games and lost five, accumulating enough points to sit two places above Universidad Catolica. The hosts have managed just two wins and ten defeats, a record that leaves them struggling for momentum. In their last five matches Universidad Catolica claimed only one victory and lost four, scoring 370 points and conceding 405. Puerto Varas won two and lost three in the same period, with 407 points for and 408 against.
Head-to-head meetings have generally gone the visitors' way. Over six encounters the record shows four wins for CD Puerto Varas and two for Universidad Catolica. The most recent meeting on 16 March 2025 ended 67-49 in favour of the visitors. Before that, on 9 March 2025, Puerto Varas won 98-47 at Universidad Catolica's home court. The pattern is clear: Puerto Varas have dominated this fixture in recent years.
The statistical model expects CD Puerto Varas to outscore Universidad Catolica by roughly four points. The visitors' shooting efficiency is higher across the board: 40.8 per cent field goal percentage compared to 39.1, 29.2 per cent from three-point range versus 25.5, and 71.8 per cent from the free-throw line against 69.1. Puerto Varas also commit fewer turnovers at 11.6 per game compared to 14.0 for the hosts. These figures suggest a win for the visitors, though the margin may be narrow.
This conclusion stops holding if Universidad Catolica can control the tempo and limit CD Puerto Varas's transition opportunities. The hosts have shown they can score in bursts, as evidenced by their 99-80 victory over Espanol de Talca in August. If they can keep the game physical and force turnovers, the model's projection becomes less reliable.
Outcome: CD CD Puerto Varas to win
Confidence: 70%