Araks Ararat vs BKMA II: match prediction on 21 September 2026

BKMA II to win. They sit second in the table with 15 points from seven matches and have beaten Araks Ararat in both previous encounters, including a 1-0 victory at this ground in April. The model puts their expected goals at 2.2 against Araks Ararat's 1.0, and the visitors' recent results show three wins in their last five outings.

BKMA II's form has been volatile. They lost 4-1 at home to Andranik on 14 September and 3-2 away to Banants II on 19 August, but they have been sharp in between. A 4-0 victory away at Sardarapat 2 on 8 September and a 2-0 home win against Bentonit Ijevan on 1 September suggest they can be decisive when they find their rhythm..

Araks Ararat sit seventh with eight points from five games. Their recent run includes two wins, two draws and one loss. They beat Pyunik Yerevan II 2-0 away on 15 September and drew 1-1 at home with Noah II on 7 September. A 1-2 loss away at Olympia Yerevan on 1 September interrupted a positive sequence. They have scored nine goals and conceded six across those five matches.

The head-to-head record favours BKMA II entirely. They won 3-2 at home in September 2025 and 1-0 away in April 2026. Araks Ararat have not won either meeting. The model expects both teams to score at 57% probability and sees 1:2 and 0:2 as the most likely outcomes, each at 10%. A draw is priced at 19%.

This conclusion stops holding if Araks Ararat defend deep and frustrate BKMA II into a stalemate. The visitors have drawn zero times in seven matches and tend to press forward when trailing, which could leave space for a counter-attack. A 1-1 result sits at 9% according to the model, and if Araks Ararat capitalise on that scenario, the prediction fails.

.