Be'sat Kermanshah vs Naft Gachsaran: match prediction on 16 September 2026

Be'sat Kermanshah win is the call, confidence 39%. The hosts have lost five straight, but Naft Gachsaran have not won either — and the visitors are more vulnerable away. Their last five matches produced one point and twelve goals against them, with most of that damage coming in the first half and late in games. Be'sat's attack is toothless at 1 goal in five games, but Naft's defence has conceded 14 times across the same period and the model gives them just 0.8 expected goals.

Be'sat Kermanshah's last result was a 2:4 away defeat to Shenavarsazi Qeshm. The pattern is relentless — not a single game has produced even a point. Naft Gachsaran are only marginally better in that stretch. They have 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses, 1 point, 4 goals scored, 12 conceded. Their draw came 2:2 away at Havadar on 11 July. The rest were losses — 0:2 at home to Mes Shahr-e Babak, 0:1 at home to Mes Soongoun, 0:3 at home to Nassaji Mazandaran, and 2:4 away to Shenavarsazi Qeshm.

In five meetings since September 2024, Be'sat Kermanshah have won twice, drawn twice, and lost once. Be'sat have not lost to Naft Gachsaran in four of the last five meetings.

Naft Gachsaran's goal timing reveals where their vulnerabilities lie. They have scored 4 goals in their last 5 matches, with 25% coming in the 31-45 minute window and 75% in the 76-90 minute period. They have conceded 14 goals, with 36% in the opening 15 minutes and another 36% in the final quarter of an hour. That means they are fragile at both ends of games — slow to respond early, slow to close out matches. Be'sat Kermanshah have not scored between the 61st and 75th minute in their recent matches.

The model expects Be'sat Kermanshah to score 1 goal and Naft Gachsaran 0.8. The draw probability sits at 33%, both teams to score at 35%, and 3 or more goals at 27%. The three most likely scorelines are 0:0 at 17%, 1:0 at 17%, and 0:1 at 13%.

A draw suits the visitors. Given how Naft Gachsaran run the clock down and concede late, that is the main threat to this conclusion. If they hold out for a point, the prediction fails. But the numbers point to a narrow home result.